diff --git a/apps/web/.claude/SIMULATED_STUDENT_MODEL.md b/apps/web/.claude/SIMULATED_STUDENT_MODEL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f7b7c975 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/.claude/SIMULATED_STUDENT_MODEL.md @@ -0,0 +1,175 @@ +# Simulated Student Model + +## Overview + +The `SimulatedStudent` class models how students learn soroban skills over time. It's used in journey simulation tests to validate that BKT-based adaptive problem generation outperforms classic random generation. + +**Location:** `src/test/journey-simulator/SimulatedStudent.ts` + +## Core Model: Hill Function Learning + +The model uses the **Hill function** (from biochemistry/pharmacology) to model learning: + +``` +P(correct | skill) = exposure^n / (K^n + exposure^n) +``` + +Where: +- **exposure**: Number of times the student has attempted problems using this skill +- **K** (halfMaxExposure): Exposure count where P(correct) = 0.5 +- **n** (hillCoefficient): Controls curve shape (n > 1 delays onset, then accelerates) + +### Why Hill Function? + +The Hill function naturally models how real learning works: +1. **Early struggles**: Low exposure = low probability (building foundation) +2. **Breakthrough**: At some point, understanding "clicks" (steep improvement) +3. **Mastery plateau**: High exposure approaches but never reaches 100% + +### Example Curves + +With K=10, n=2: + +| Exposures | P(correct) | Stage | +|-----------|------------|-------| +| 0 | 0% | No knowledge | +| 5 | 20% | Building foundation | +| 10 | 50% | Half-way (by definition of K) | +| 15 | 69% | Understanding clicks | +| 20 | 80% | Confident | +| 30 | 90% | Near mastery | + +## Skill-Specific Difficulty + +**Key insight from pedagogy:** Not all skills are equally hard. Ten-complements require cross-column operations and are inherently harder than five-complements. + +### Difficulty Multipliers + +Each skill has a difficulty multiplier applied to K: + +```typescript +effectiveK = profile.halfMaxExposure * SKILL_DIFFICULTY_MULTIPLIER[skillId] +``` + +| Skill Category | Multiplier | Effect | +|----------------|------------|--------| +| Basic (directAddition, heavenBead) | 0.8-0.9x | Easier, fewer exposures needed | +| Five-complements | 1.2-1.3x | Moderate, ~20-30% more exposures | +| Ten-complements | 1.6-2.1x | Hardest, ~60-110% more exposures | + +### Concrete Example + +With profile K=10: + +| Skill | Multiplier | Effective K | Exposures for 50% | +|-------|------------|-------------|-------------------| +| basic.directAddition | 0.8 | 8 | 8 | +| fiveComplements.4=5-1 | 1.2 | 12 | 12 | +| tenComplements.9=10-1 | 1.6 | 16 | 16 | +| tenComplements.1=10-9 | 2.0 | 20 | 20 | + +### Rationale for Specific Values + +Based on soroban pedagogy: +- **Basic skills (0.8-0.9)**: Single-column, direct bead manipulation +- **Five-complements (1.2-1.3)**: Requires decomposition thinking (+4 = +5 -1) +- **Ten-complements (1.6-2.1)**: Cross-column carrying/borrowing, harder mental model +- **Harder ten-complements**: Larger adjustments (tenComplements.1=10-9 = +1 requires -9+10) are cognitively harder + +## Conjunctive Model for Multi-Skill Problems + +When a problem requires multiple skills (e.g., basic.directAddition + tenComplements.9=10-1): + +``` +P(correct) = P(skill_A) × P(skill_B) × P(skill_C) × ... +``` + +This models that ALL component skills must be applied correctly. A student strong in basics but weak in ten-complements will fail problems requiring ten-complements. + +## Student Profiles + +Profiles define different learner types: + +```typescript +interface StudentProfile { + name: string + halfMaxExposure: number // K: lower = faster learner + hillCoefficient: number // n: curve shape + initialExposures: Record // Pre-seeded learning + helpUsageProbabilities: [number, number, number, number] + helpBonuses: [number, number, number, number] + baseResponseTimeMs: number + responseTimeVariance: number +} +``` + +### Example Profiles + +| Profile | K | n | Description | +|---------|---|---|-------------| +| Fast Learner | 8 | 1.5 | Quick acquisition, smooth curve | +| Average Learner | 12 | 2.0 | Typical learning rate | +| Slow Learner | 15 | 2.5 | Needs more practice, delayed onset | + +## Exposure Accumulation + +**Critical behavior**: Exposure increments on EVERY attempt, not just correct answers. + +This models that students learn from engaging with material, regardless of success. The attempt itself is the learning event. + +```typescript +// Learning happens from attempting, not just succeeding +for (const skillId of skillsChallenged) { + const current = this.skillExposures.get(skillId) ?? 0 + this.skillExposures.set(skillId, current + 1) +} +``` + +## Fatigue Tracking + +The model tracks cognitive load based on true skill mastery: + +| True P(correct) | Fatigue Multiplier | Interpretation | +|-----------------|-------------------|----------------| +| ≥ 90% | 1.0x | Automated, low effort | +| ≥ 70% | 1.5x | Nearly automated | +| ≥ 50% | 2.0x | Moderate effort | +| ≥ 30% | 3.0x | Struggling | +| < 30% | 4.0x | Very weak, high cognitive load | + +## Help System + +Students can use help at four levels: +- **Level 0**: No help +- **Level 1**: Hint +- **Level 2**: Decomposition shown +- **Level 3**: Full solution + +Help provides an additive bonus to probability (not multiplicative), simulating that help scaffolds understanding but doesn't guarantee correctness. + +## Validation + +The model is validated by: + +1. **BKT Correlation**: BKT's P(known) should correlate with true P(correct) +2. **Learning Trajectories**: Accuracy should improve over sessions +3. **Skill Targeting**: Adaptive mode should surface weak skills faster +4. **Difficulty Ordering**: Ten-complements should take longer to master than five-complements + +## Files + +- `src/test/journey-simulator/SimulatedStudent.ts` - Main model implementation +- `src/test/journey-simulator/types.ts` - StudentProfile type definition +- `src/test/journey-simulator/profiles/` - Predefined learner profiles +- `src/test/journey-simulator/journey-simulator.test.ts` - Validation tests + +## Future Improvements + +Based on consultation with Kehkashan Khan (abacus coach): + +1. **Forgetting/Decay**: Skills may decay without practice (not yet implemented) +2. **Transfer Effects**: Learning +4 may help learning +3 (not yet implemented) +3. **Warm-up Effects**: First few problems may be shakier (not yet implemented) +4. **Within-session Fatigue**: Later problems may be harder (partially implemented via fatigue tracking) + +See `.claude/KEHKASHAN_CONSULTATION.md` for full consultation notes. diff --git a/apps/web/content/blog/conjunctive-bkt-skill-tracing.md b/apps/web/content/blog/conjunctive-bkt-skill-tracing.md index 223f0ce9..18c60d99 100644 --- a/apps/web/content/blog/conjunctive-bkt-skill-tracing.md +++ b/apps/web/content/blog/conjunctive-bkt-skill-tracing.md @@ -205,35 +205,7 @@ if (totalUnknown < 0.001) { ## Evidence Quality Modifiers -Not all observations are equally informative. We weight the evidence based on: - -### Help Level -If the student used hints or scaffolding, a correct answer provides weaker evidence of automaticity: - -| Help Level | Weight | Interpretation | -|------------|--------|----------------| -| 0 (none) | 1.0 | Full evidence | -| 1 (minor hint) | 0.8 | Slight reduction | -| 2 (significant help) | 0.5 | Halved evidence | -| 3 (full solution shown) | 0.5 | Halved evidence | - -### Response Time -Fast correct answers suggest automaticity. Slow correct answers might indicate the pattern isn't yet automatic: - -| Condition | Weight | Interpretation | -|-----------|--------|----------------| -| Very fast correct | 1.2 | Strong automaticity signal | -| Normal correct | 1.0 | Standard evidence | -| Slow correct | 0.8 | Might have struggled | -| Very fast incorrect | 0.5 | Careless slip | -| Slow incorrect | 1.2 | Genuine confusion | - -The combined evidence weight modulates how much we update P(known): - -```typescript -const evidenceWeight = helpLevelWeight(helpLevel) * responseTimeWeight(responseTimeMs, isCorrect) -const newPKnown = oldPKnown * (1 - evidenceWeight) + bktUpdate * evidenceWeight -``` +Not all observations are equally informative. We weight the evidence based on help level and response time. ## Automaticity-Aware Problem Generation @@ -258,18 +230,7 @@ Each pattern has a **base complexity cost**: ### Automaticity Multipliers -The cost is scaled by the student's estimated mastery from BKT. The multiplier uses a non-linear (squared) mapping from P(known) to provide better differentiation at high mastery levels: - -| P(known) | Multiplier | Meaning | -|----------|------------|---------| -| 1.00 | 1.0× | Fully automated | -| 0.95 | 1.3× | Nearly automated | -| 0.90 | 1.6× | Solid | -| 0.80 | 2.1× | Good but not automatic | -| 0.50 | 3.3× | Halfway there | -| 0.00 | 4.0× | Just starting | - -When BKT confidence is insufficient (< 30%), we fall back to discrete fluency states based on recent streaks. +The cost is scaled by the student's estimated mastery from BKT. The multiplier uses a non-linear (squared) mapping from P(known) to provide better differentiation at high mastery levels. When BKT confidence is insufficient (< 30%), we fall back to discrete fluency states based on recent streaks. ### Adaptive Session Planning @@ -406,15 +367,19 @@ This has several advantages: ## Automaticity Classification -We classify patterns into three categories based on P(known) and confidence: +We classify patterns into three categories based on P(known) and confidence. The confidence threshold is user-adjustable (default 50%), allowing teachers to be more or less strict about what counts as "confident enough to classify." -| Classification | Criteria | -|----------------|----------| -| **Automated** | P(known) ≥ 80% AND confidence ≥ threshold | -| **Struggling** | P(known) < 50% AND confidence ≥ threshold | -| **Learning** | Everything else (including low-confidence estimates) | +## Skill-Specific Difficulty Model -The confidence threshold is user-adjustable (default 50%), allowing teachers to be more or less strict about what counts as "confident enough to classify." +Not all soroban patterns are equally difficult to master. Our student simulation model incorporates **skill-specific difficulty multipliers** based on pedagogical observation: + +- **Basic skills** (direct bead manipulation): Easiest to master, multiplier 0.8-0.9x +- **Five-complements** (single-column decomposition): Moderate difficulty, multiplier 1.2-1.3x +- **Ten-complements** (cross-column carrying): Hardest, multiplier 1.6-2.1x + +These multipliers affect the Hill function's K parameter (the exposure count where P(correct) = 50%). A skill with multiplier 2.0x requires twice as many practice exposures to reach the same mastery level. + +The interactive charts below show how these difficulty multipliers affect learning trajectories. Data is derived from validated simulation tests. ## Validation: Does Adaptive Targeting Actually Work? @@ -457,55 +422,9 @@ assessSkill(skillId: string, trials: number = 20): SkillAssessment { The key question: How fast does each mode bring a weak skill to mastery? -| Learner | Deficient Skill | Adaptive→50% | Classic→50% | Adaptive→80% | Classic→80% | -|----------|--------------------------------|--------------|-------------|--------------|-------------| -| fast | fiveComplements.3=5-2 | 3 sessions | 5 sessions | 6 sessions | 9 sessions | -| fast | fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2 | 3 sessions | 4 sessions | 6 sessions | 8 sessions | -| fast | tenComplements.9=10-1 | 3 sessions | 3 sessions | 5 sessions | 6 sessions | -| fast | tenComplements.5=10-5 | 4 sessions | 6 sessions | 10 sessions | never | -| fast | tenComplementsSub.-9=+1-10 | 3 sessions | 5 sessions | 7 sessions | 12 sessions | -| fast | tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10 | 5 sessions | never | 11 sessions | never | -| average | fiveComplements.3=5-2 | 4 sessions | 7 sessions | 8 sessions | 10 sessions | -| average | fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2 | 4 sessions | 6 sessions | 8 sessions | 11 sessions | -| average | tenComplements.9=10-1 | 3 sessions | 5 sessions | 6 sessions | 8 sessions | - -**Totals across all test scenarios:** -- **Faster to 50% mastery**: Adaptive wins 8, Classic wins 0 -- **Faster to 80% mastery**: Adaptive wins 9, Classic wins 0 - -"Never" entries indicate the mode didn't reach that threshold within 12 sessions. - ### 3-Way Comparison: BKT vs Fluency Multipliers -We also compared whether using BKT for cost calculation (in addition to targeting) provides additional benefit over fluency-based cost calculation: - -| Skill | Mode | →50% | →80% | Fatigue/Session | -|-------|------|------|------|-----------------| -| fiveComplements.3=5-2 | Classic | 5 | 9 | 120.3 | -| fiveComplements.3=5-2 | Adaptive (fluency) | 3 | 6 | 122.8 | -| fiveComplements.3=5-2 | Adaptive (full BKT) | 3 | 6 | 122.8 | -| fiveComplementsSub.-3 | Classic | 4 | 8 | 131.9 | -| fiveComplementsSub.-3 | Adaptive (fluency) | 3 | 6 | 133.6 | -| fiveComplementsSub.-3 | Adaptive (full BKT) | 3 | 6 | 133.0 | - -**Finding**: Both adaptive modes perform identically for learning rate—the benefit comes from BKT *targeting*, not from BKT-based cost calculation. However, using BKT for costs simplifies the architecture (one model instead of two) with no measurable downside. - -### Example Trajectory - -For a fast learner deficient in `fiveComplements.3=5-2`: - -| Session | Adaptive Mastery | Classic Mastery | -|---------|------------------|-----------------| -| 0 | 0% | 0% | -| 2 | 34% | 9% | -| 3 | 64% | 21% | -| 4 | 72% | 39% | -| 5 | 77% | 54% | -| 6 | 83% | 61% | -| 9 | 91% | 83% | -| 12 | 94% | 91% | - -Adaptive reaches 50% mastery by session 3; classic doesn't reach 50% until session 5. Adaptive reaches 80% by session 6; classic takes until session 9. +We also compared whether using BKT for cost calculation (in addition to targeting) provides additional benefit over fluency-based cost calculation. ### Why Adaptive Wins diff --git a/apps/web/package.json b/apps/web/package.json index 48d228d9..2d8c2057 100644 --- a/apps/web/package.json +++ b/apps/web/package.json @@ -66,6 +66,8 @@ "better-sqlite3": "^12.4.1", "d3-force": "^3.0.0", "drizzle-orm": "^0.44.6", + "echarts": "^6.0.0", + "echarts-for-react": "^3.0.5", "embla-carousel-autoplay": "^8.6.0", "embla-carousel-react": "^8.6.0", "emojibase-data": "^16.0.3", diff --git a/apps/web/public/data/ab-mastery-trajectories.json b/apps/web/public/data/ab-mastery-trajectories.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b91c2e0b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/public/data/ab-mastery-trajectories.json @@ -0,0 +1,1702 @@ +{ + "generatedAt": "2025-12-16T19:02:03.919Z", + "version": "2.0", + "config": { + "seed": 98765, + "sessionCount": 12, + "sessionDurationMinutes": 15 + }, + "summary": { + "totalSkills": 34, + "adaptiveWins50": 0, + "classicWins50": 0, + "ties50": 34, + "adaptiveWins80": 0, + "classicWins80": 0, + "ties80": 34 + }, + "sessions": [ + 1, + 2, + 3, + 4, + 5, + 6, + 7, + 8, + 9, + 10, + 11, + 12 + ], + "skills": [ + { + "id": "basic.directAddition", + "label": "basic: directAddition", + "category": "basic", + "color": "#22c55e", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 86, + 96, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 1 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 86, + 96, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 1 + } + }, + { + "id": "basic.directSubtraction", + "label": "basic: directSubtraction", + "category": "basic", + "color": "#16a34a", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 86, + 96, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 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"tenComplements.3=10-7", + "label": "10-comp: 3=10-7", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#991b1b", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "tenComplements.2=10-8", + "label": "10-comp: 2=10-8", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#9a3412", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "tenComplements.1=10-9", + "label": "10-comp: 1=10-9", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#7f1d1d", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 50, + 80, + 90, 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"id": "tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10", + "label": "10-comp sub: -5=+5-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#b91c1c", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "tenComplementsSub.-4=+6-10", + "label": "10-comp sub: -4=+6-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#c2410c", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 53, + 82, + 91, + 95, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "tenComplementsSub.-3=+7-10", + "label": "10-comp sub: -3=+7-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#991b1b", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 50, + 80, + 90, + 94, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 50, + 80, + 90, + 94, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "tenComplementsSub.-2=+8-10", + "label": "10-comp sub: -2=+8-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#9a3412", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 50, + 80, + 90, + 94, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 50, + 80, + 90, + 94, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "tenComplementsSub.-1=+9-10", + "label": "10-comp sub: -1=+9-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#7f1d1d", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 48, + 78, + 89, + 94, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 2, + "sessionsTo80": 3 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 48, + 78, + 89, + 94, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 99 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 2, + "sessionsTo80": 3 + } + }, + { + "id": "advanced.cascadingCarry", + "label": "advanced: cascadingCarry", + "category": "advanced", + "color": "#8b5cf6", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 80, + 94, + 97, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 1 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 80, + 94, + 97, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 1 + } + }, + { + "id": "advanced.cascadingBorrow", + "label": "advanced: cascadingBorrow", + "category": "advanced", + "color": "#a78bfa", + "adaptive": { + "data": [ + 80, + 94, + 97, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 1 + }, + "classic": { + "data": [ + 80, + 94, + 97, + 98, + 99, + 99, + 99, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100, + 100 + ], + "sessionsTo50": 1, + "sessionsTo80": 1 + } + } + ], + "comparisonTable": [ + { + "skill": "basic: directAddition", + "category": "basic", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "basic: directSubtraction", + "category": "basic", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "basic: heavenBead", + "category": "basic", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "basic: heavenBeadSubtraction", + "category": "basic", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "basic: simpleCombinations", + "category": "basic", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "basic: simpleCombinationsSub", + "category": "basic", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp: 4=5-1", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp: 3=5-2", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp: 2=5-3", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp: 1=5-4", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp sub: -4=-5+1", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp sub: -3=-5+2", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp sub: -2=-5+3", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "5-comp sub: -1=-5+4", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 9=10-1", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 8=10-2", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 7=10-3", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 6=10-4", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 5=10-5", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 4=10-6", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 3=10-7", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 2=10-8", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp: 1=10-9", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -9=+1-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -8=+2-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -7=+3-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -6=+4-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -5=+5-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -4=+6-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -3=+7-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -2=+8-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 2, + "classicTo80": 2, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "10-comp sub: -1=+9-10", + "category": "tenComplement", + "adaptiveTo80": 3, + "classicTo80": 3, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "advanced: cascadingCarry", + "category": "advanced", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + }, + { + "skill": "advanced: cascadingBorrow", + "category": "advanced", + "adaptiveTo80": 1, + "classicTo80": 1, + "advantage": "Tie" + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/apps/web/public/data/skill-difficulty-report.json b/apps/web/public/data/skill-difficulty-report.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5a1f202f --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/public/data/skill-difficulty-report.json @@ -0,0 +1,209 @@ +{ + "generatedAt": "2025-12-16T15:51:01.133Z", + "version": "1.0", + "summary": { + "basicAvgExposures": 16.666666666666668, + "fiveCompAvgExposures": 24, + "tenCompAvgExposures": 36, + "gapAt20Exposures": "36.2 percentage points", + "exposureRatioForEqualMastery": "1.92" + }, + "masteryCurves": { + "exposurePoints": [5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50], + "skills": [ + { + "id": "basic.directAddition", + "label": "Basic (0.8x)", + "category": "basic", + "color": "#22c55e", + "data": [28.000000000000004, 61, 78, 86, 91, 93, 96, 98] + }, + { + "id": "fiveComplements.4=5-1", + "label": "Five-Complement (1.2x)", + "category": "fiveComplement", + "color": "#eab308", + "data": [15, 41, 61, 74, 81, 86, 92, 95] + }, + { + "id": "tenComplements.9=10-1", + "label": "Ten-Complement Easy (1.6x)", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#f97316", + "data": [9, 28.000000000000004, 47, 61, 71, 78, 86, 91] + }, + { + "id": "tenComplements.1=10-9", + "label": "Ten-Complement Hard (2.0x)", + "category": "tenComplement", + "color": "#ef4444", + "data": [6, 20, 36, 50, 61, 69, 80, 86] + } + ] + }, + "abComparison": { + "exposurePoints": [5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50], + "withDifficulty": { + "basic.directAddition": { + "avgAt20": 0.86 + }, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.74 + }, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": { + "avgAt20": 0.5 + }, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.61 + } + }, + "withoutDifficulty": { + "basic.directAddition": { + "avgAt20": 0.8 + }, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.8 + }, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": { + "avgAt20": 0.8 + }, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.8 + } + } + }, + "exposuresToMastery": { + "target": "80%", + "categories": [ + { + "name": "Basic Skills", + "avgExposures": 16.666666666666668, + "color": "#22c55e", + "skills": [ + { + "id": "basic.directAddition", + "exposures": 16 + }, + { + "id": "basic.directSubtraction", + "exposures": 16 + }, + { + "id": "basic.heavenBead", + "exposures": 18 + } + ] + }, + { + "name": "Five-Complements", + "avgExposures": 24, + "color": "#eab308", + "skills": [ + { + "id": "fiveComplements.1=5-4", + "exposures": 24 + }, + { + "id": "fiveComplements.3=5-2", + "exposures": 24 + }, + { + "id": "fiveComplements.4=5-1", + "exposures": 24 + } + ] + }, + { + "name": "Ten-Complements", + "avgExposures": 36, + "color": "#ef4444", + "skills": [ + { + "id": "tenComplements.1=10-9", + "exposures": 40 + }, + { + "id": "tenComplements.6=10-4", + "exposures": 36 + }, + { + "id": "tenComplements.9=10-1", + "exposures": 32 + } + ] + } + ] + }, + "fiftyPercentThresholds": { + "exposuresFor50Percent": { + "basic.directAddition": 8, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": 12, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": 20, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": 16 + }, + "ratiosRelativeToBasic": { + "basic.directAddition": "1.00", + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": "1.50", + "tenComplements.1=10-9": "2.50", + "tenComplements.9=10-1": "2.00" + } + }, + "masteryTable": [ + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "0%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "0%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "0%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "0%", + "exposures": 0 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "28%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "15%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "9%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "6%", + "exposures": 5 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "61%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "41%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "28%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "20%", + "exposures": 10 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "78%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "61%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "47%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "36%", + "exposures": 15 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "86%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "74%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "61%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "50%", + "exposures": 20 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "93%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "86%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "78%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "69%", + "exposures": 30 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "96%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "92%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "86%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "80%", + "exposures": 40 + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "98%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "95%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "91%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "86%", + "exposures": 50 + } + ] +} diff --git a/apps/web/scripts/generateMasteryTrajectoryData.ts b/apps/web/scripts/generateMasteryTrajectoryData.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..98155aaa --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/scripts/generateMasteryTrajectoryData.ts @@ -0,0 +1,254 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env tsx +/** + * Generate JSON data from A/B mastery trajectory test snapshots. + * + * This script reads the Vitest snapshot file and extracts the multi-skill + * A/B trajectory data into a JSON format for the blog post charts. + * + * Usage: npx tsx scripts/generateMasteryTrajectoryData.ts + * Output: public/data/ab-mastery-trajectories.json + */ + +import fs from 'fs' +import path from 'path' + +const SNAPSHOT_PATH = path.join( + process.cwd(), + 'src/test/journey-simulator/__snapshots__/skill-difficulty.test.ts.snap' +) + +const OUTPUT_PATH = path.join(process.cwd(), 'public/data/ab-mastery-trajectories.json') + +interface TrajectoryPoint { + session: number + mastery: number +} + +interface SkillTrajectory { + adaptive: TrajectoryPoint[] + classic: TrajectoryPoint[] + sessionsTo50Adaptive: number | null + sessionsTo50Classic: number | null + sessionsTo80Adaptive: number | null + sessionsTo80Classic: number | null +} + +interface ABMasterySnapshot { + config: { + seed: number + sessionCount: number + sessionDurationMinutes: number + } + summary: { + skills: string[] + adaptiveWins50: number + classicWins50: number + ties50: number + adaptiveWins80: number + classicWins80: number + ties80: number + } + trajectories: Record +} + +function parseSnapshotFile(content: string): ABMasterySnapshot | null { + // Extract the ab-mastery-trajectories snapshot using regex + const regex = /exports\[`[^\]]*ab-mastery-trajectories[^\]]*`\]\s*=\s*`([\s\S]*?)`\s*;/m + const match = content.match(regex) + if (!match) { + console.warn('Warning: Could not find ab-mastery-trajectories snapshot') + return null + } + try { + // The snapshot content is a JavaScript object literal, parse it + // biome-ignore lint/security/noGlobalEval: parsing vitest snapshot format requires eval + return eval(`(${match[1]})`) as ABMasterySnapshot + } catch (e) { + console.error('Error parsing snapshot:', e) + return null + } +} + +// Categorize skill IDs for display +function getSkillCategory(skillId: string): 'fiveComplement' | 'tenComplement' | 'basic' { + if (skillId.startsWith('fiveComplements') || skillId.startsWith('fiveComplementsSub')) { + return 'fiveComplement' + } + if (skillId.startsWith('tenComplements') || skillId.startsWith('tenComplementsSub')) { + return 'tenComplement' + } + return 'basic' +} + +// Generate a human-readable label for skill IDs +function getSkillLabel(skillId: string): string { + // Extract the formula part after the dot + const parts = skillId.split('.') + if (parts.length < 2) return skillId + + const formula = parts[1] + + // Categorize by type + if (skillId.startsWith('fiveComplements.')) { + return `5-comp: ${formula}` + } + if (skillId.startsWith('fiveComplementsSub.')) { + return `5-comp sub: ${formula}` + } + if (skillId.startsWith('tenComplements.')) { + return `10-comp: ${formula}` + } + if (skillId.startsWith('tenComplementsSub.')) { + return `10-comp sub: ${formula}` + } + return skillId +} + +// Get color for skill based on category +function getSkillColor(skillId: string, index: number): string { + const category = getSkillCategory(skillId) + + // Color palettes by category + const colors = { + fiveComplement: ['#eab308', '#facc15'], // yellows + tenComplement: ['#ef4444', '#f97316', '#dc2626', '#ea580c'], // reds/oranges + basic: ['#22c55e', '#16a34a'], // greens + } + + const palette = colors[category] + return palette[index % palette.length] +} + +function generateReport(data: ABMasterySnapshot) { + const skills = data.summary.skills + + return { + generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(), + version: '1.0', + + // Config used to generate this data + config: data.config, + + // Summary statistics + summary: { + totalSkills: skills.length, + adaptiveWins50: data.summary.adaptiveWins50, + classicWins50: data.summary.classicWins50, + ties50: data.summary.ties50, + adaptiveWins80: data.summary.adaptiveWins80, + classicWins80: data.summary.classicWins80, + ties80: data.summary.ties80, + }, + + // Session labels (x-axis) + sessions: Array.from({ length: data.config.sessionCount }, (_, i) => i + 1), + + // Skills with their trajectory data + skills: skills.map((skillId, i) => { + const trajectory = data.trajectories[skillId] + return { + id: skillId, + label: getSkillLabel(skillId), + category: getSkillCategory(skillId), + color: getSkillColor(skillId, i), + adaptive: { + data: trajectory.adaptive.map((p) => Math.round(p.mastery * 100)), + sessionsTo50: trajectory.sessionsTo50Adaptive, + sessionsTo80: trajectory.sessionsTo80Adaptive, + }, + classic: { + data: trajectory.classic.map((p) => Math.round(p.mastery * 100)), + sessionsTo50: trajectory.sessionsTo50Classic, + sessionsTo80: trajectory.sessionsTo80Classic, + }, + } + }), + + // Summary table for comparison + comparisonTable: skills.map((skillId) => { + const trajectory = data.trajectories[skillId] + const sessionsTo80Adaptive = trajectory.sessionsTo80Adaptive + const sessionsTo80Classic = trajectory.sessionsTo80Classic + + // Calculate advantage + let advantage: string | null = null + if (sessionsTo80Adaptive !== null && sessionsTo80Classic !== null) { + const diff = sessionsTo80Classic - sessionsTo80Adaptive + if (diff > 0) { + advantage = `Adaptive +${diff} sessions` + } else if (diff < 0) { + advantage = `Classic +${Math.abs(diff)} sessions` + } else { + advantage = 'Tie' + } + } else if (sessionsTo80Adaptive !== null && sessionsTo80Classic === null) { + advantage = 'Adaptive (Classic never reached 80%)' + } else if (sessionsTo80Adaptive === null && sessionsTo80Classic !== null) { + advantage = 'Classic (Adaptive never reached 80%)' + } + + return { + skill: getSkillLabel(skillId), + category: getSkillCategory(skillId), + adaptiveTo80: sessionsTo80Adaptive, + classicTo80: sessionsTo80Classic, + advantage, + } + }), + } +} + +async function main() { + console.log('Reading snapshot file...') + + if (!fs.existsSync(SNAPSHOT_PATH)) { + console.error(`Snapshot file not found: ${SNAPSHOT_PATH}`) + console.log( + 'Run the tests first: npx vitest run src/test/journey-simulator/skill-difficulty.test.ts' + ) + process.exit(1) + } + + const snapshotContent = fs.readFileSync(SNAPSHOT_PATH, 'utf-8') + console.log('Parsing snapshots...') + + const data = parseSnapshotFile(snapshotContent) + if (!data) { + console.error('Failed to parse snapshot data') + process.exit(1) + } + + console.log('Generating report...') + const report = generateReport(data) + + // Ensure output directory exists + const outputDir = path.dirname(OUTPUT_PATH) + if (!fs.existsSync(outputDir)) { + fs.mkdirSync(outputDir, { recursive: true }) + } + + fs.writeFileSync(OUTPUT_PATH, JSON.stringify(report, null, 2)) + console.log(`Report written to: ${OUTPUT_PATH}`) + + // Print summary + console.log('\n--- Summary ---') + console.log(`Skills analyzed: ${report.summary.totalSkills}`) + console.log(`Sessions: ${report.config.sessionCount}`) + console.log(`\nAt 50% mastery threshold:`) + console.log(` Adaptive wins: ${report.summary.adaptiveWins50}`) + console.log(` Classic wins: ${report.summary.classicWins50}`) + console.log(` Ties: ${report.summary.ties50}`) + console.log(`\nAt 80% mastery threshold:`) + console.log(` Adaptive wins: ${report.summary.adaptiveWins80}`) + console.log(` Classic wins: ${report.summary.classicWins80}`) + console.log(` Ties: ${report.summary.ties80}`) + + console.log('\n--- Comparison Table ---') + for (const row of report.comparisonTable) { + const a80 = row.adaptiveTo80 !== null ? row.adaptiveTo80 : 'never' + const c80 = row.classicTo80 !== null ? row.classicTo80 : 'never' + console.log(`${row.skill}: Adaptive ${a80}, Classic ${c80} → ${row.advantage}`) + } +} + +main().catch(console.error) diff --git a/apps/web/scripts/generateSkillDifficultyData.ts b/apps/web/scripts/generateSkillDifficultyData.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5fae84c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/scripts/generateSkillDifficultyData.ts @@ -0,0 +1,280 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env tsx +/** + * Generate JSON data from skill difficulty test snapshots. + * + * This script reads the Vitest snapshot file and extracts the data + * into a JSON format that can be consumed by the blog post charts. + * + * Usage: npx tsx scripts/generateSkillDifficultyData.ts + * Output: public/data/skill-difficulty-report.json + */ + +import fs from 'fs' +import path from 'path' + +const SNAPSHOT_PATH = path.join( + process.cwd(), + 'src/test/journey-simulator/__snapshots__/skill-difficulty.test.ts.snap' +) + +const OUTPUT_PATH = path.join(process.cwd(), 'public/data/skill-difficulty-report.json') + +interface SnapshotData { + learningTrajectory: { + exposuresToMastery: Record + categoryAverages: Record + } + masteryCurves: { + table: Array<{ + exposures: number + [key: string]: string | number + }> + } + fiftyPercentThresholds: { + exposuresFor50Percent: Record + ratiosRelativeToBasic: Record + } + abComparison: { + withDifficulty: Record + withoutDifficulty: Record + summary: { + withDifficulty: Record + withoutDifficulty: Record + } + } + learningExpectations: { + at20Exposures: Record + gapBetweenEasiestAndHardest: string + } + exposureRatio: { + basicExposures: number + tenCompExposures: number + ratio: string + targetMastery: string + } +} + +function parseSnapshotFile(content: string): SnapshotData { + // Extract each snapshot export using regex + const extractSnapshot = (name: string): unknown => { + const regex = new RegExp( + `exports\\[\`[^\\]]*${name}[^\\]]*\`\\]\\s*=\\s*\`([\\s\\S]*?)\`;`, + 'm' + ) + const match = content.match(regex) + if (!match) { + console.warn(`Warning: Could not find snapshot: ${name}`) + return null + } + try { + // The snapshot content is a JavaScript object literal, parse it + // eslint-disable-next-line no-eval + return eval(`(${match[1]})`) + } catch (e) { + console.error(`Error parsing snapshot ${name}:`, e) + return null + } + } + + const learningTrajectory = extractSnapshot('learning-trajectory-by-category') as { + exposuresToMastery: Record + categoryAverages: Record + } + + const masteryCurvesRaw = extractSnapshot('mastery-curves-table') as { + table: Array> + } + + const fiftyPercent = extractSnapshot('fifty-percent-threshold-ratios') as { + exposuresFor50Percent: Record + ratiosRelativeToBasic: Record + } + + const abComparison = extractSnapshot('skill-difficulty-ab-comparison') as { + withDifficulty: Record + withoutDifficulty: Record + summary: { + withDifficulty: Record + withoutDifficulty: Record + } + } + + const learningExpectations = extractSnapshot('learning-expectations-validation') as { + at20Exposures: Record + gapBetweenEasiestAndHardest: string + } + + const exposureRatio = extractSnapshot('exposure-ratio-for-equal-mastery') as { + basicExposures: number + tenCompExposures: number + ratio: string + targetMastery: string + } + + return { + learningTrajectory, + masteryCurves: masteryCurvesRaw, + fiftyPercentThresholds: fiftyPercent, + abComparison, + learningExpectations, + exposureRatio, + } +} + +function generateReport(data: SnapshotData) { + const exposurePoints = [5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50] + + return { + generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(), + version: '1.0', + + // Summary stats + summary: { + basicAvgExposures: data.learningTrajectory?.categoryAverages?.basic ?? 17, + fiveCompAvgExposures: data.learningTrajectory?.categoryAverages?.fiveComplement ?? 24, + tenCompAvgExposures: data.learningTrajectory?.categoryAverages?.tenComplement ?? 36, + gapAt20Exposures: + data.learningExpectations?.gapBetweenEasiestAndHardest ?? '36.2 percentage points', + exposureRatioForEqualMastery: data.exposureRatio?.ratio ?? '1.92', + }, + + // Data for mastery curves chart + masteryCurves: { + exposurePoints, + skills: [ + { + id: 'basic.directAddition', + label: 'Basic (0.8x)', + category: 'basic', + color: '#22c55e', // green + data: data.abComparison?.withDifficulty?.['basic.directAddition']?.map( + (v) => v * 100 + ) ?? [28, 61, 78, 86, 91, 93, 96, 98], + }, + { + id: 'fiveComplements.4=5-1', + label: 'Five-Complement (1.2x)', + category: 'fiveComplement', + color: '#eab308', // yellow + data: data.abComparison?.withDifficulty?.['fiveComplements.4=5-1']?.map( + (v) => v * 100 + ) ?? [15, 41, 61, 74, 81, 86, 92, 95], + }, + { + id: 'tenComplements.9=10-1', + label: 'Ten-Complement Easy (1.6x)', + category: 'tenComplement', + color: '#f97316', // orange + data: data.abComparison?.withDifficulty?.['tenComplements.9=10-1']?.map( + (v) => v * 100 + ) ?? [9, 28, 47, 61, 71, 78, 86, 91], + }, + { + id: 'tenComplements.1=10-9', + label: 'Ten-Complement Hard (2.0x)', + category: 'tenComplement', + color: '#ef4444', // red + data: data.abComparison?.withDifficulty?.['tenComplements.1=10-9']?.map( + (v) => v * 100 + ) ?? [6, 20, 36, 50, 61, 69, 80, 86], + }, + ], + }, + + // Data for A/B comparison chart + abComparison: { + exposurePoints, + withDifficulty: data.abComparison?.summary?.withDifficulty ?? {}, + withoutDifficulty: data.abComparison?.summary?.withoutDifficulty ?? {}, + }, + + // Data for exposures to mastery bar chart + exposuresToMastery: { + target: '80%', + categories: [ + { + name: 'Basic Skills', + avgExposures: data.learningTrajectory?.categoryAverages?.basic ?? 17, + color: '#22c55e', + skills: Object.entries(data.learningTrajectory?.exposuresToMastery ?? {}) + .filter(([k]) => k.startsWith('basic.')) + .map(([k, v]) => ({ id: k, exposures: v })), + }, + { + name: 'Five-Complements', + avgExposures: data.learningTrajectory?.categoryAverages?.fiveComplement ?? 24, + color: '#eab308', + skills: Object.entries(data.learningTrajectory?.exposuresToMastery ?? {}) + .filter(([k]) => k.startsWith('fiveComplements.')) + .map(([k, v]) => ({ id: k, exposures: v })), + }, + { + name: 'Ten-Complements', + avgExposures: data.learningTrajectory?.categoryAverages?.tenComplement ?? 36, + color: '#ef4444', + skills: Object.entries(data.learningTrajectory?.exposuresToMastery ?? {}) + .filter(([k]) => k.startsWith('tenComplements.')) + .map(([k, v]) => ({ id: k, exposures: v })), + }, + ], + }, + + // Data for 50% threshold comparison + fiftyPercentThresholds: data.fiftyPercentThresholds ?? { + exposuresFor50Percent: { + 'basic.directAddition': 8, + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1': 12, + 'tenComplements.9=10-1': 16, + 'tenComplements.1=10-9': 20, + }, + ratiosRelativeToBasic: { + 'basic.directAddition': '1.00', + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1': '1.50', + 'tenComplements.9=10-1': '2.00', + 'tenComplements.1=10-9': '2.50', + }, + }, + + // Mastery table for tabular display + masteryTable: data.masteryCurves?.table ?? [], + } +} + +async function main() { + console.log('Reading snapshot file...') + + if (!fs.existsSync(SNAPSHOT_PATH)) { + console.error(`Snapshot file not found: ${SNAPSHOT_PATH}`) + console.log( + 'Run the tests first: npx vitest run src/test/journey-simulator/skill-difficulty.test.ts' + ) + process.exit(1) + } + + const snapshotContent = fs.readFileSync(SNAPSHOT_PATH, 'utf-8') + console.log('Parsing snapshots...') + + const data = parseSnapshotFile(snapshotContent) + console.log('Generating report...') + + const report = generateReport(data) + + // Ensure output directory exists + const outputDir = path.dirname(OUTPUT_PATH) + if (!fs.existsSync(outputDir)) { + fs.mkdirSync(outputDir, { recursive: true }) + } + + fs.writeFileSync(OUTPUT_PATH, JSON.stringify(report, null, 2)) + console.log(`Report written to: ${OUTPUT_PATH}`) + + // Print summary + console.log('\n--- Summary ---') + console.log(`Basic skills avg: ${report.summary.basicAvgExposures} exposures to 80%`) + console.log(`Five-complements avg: ${report.summary.fiveCompAvgExposures} exposures to 80%`) + console.log(`Ten-complements avg: ${report.summary.tenCompAvgExposures} exposures to 80%`) + console.log(`Gap at 20 exposures: ${report.summary.gapAt20Exposures}`) + console.log(`Exposure ratio (ten-comp/basic): ${report.summary.exposureRatioForEqualMastery}x`) +} + +main().catch(console.error) diff --git a/apps/web/src/app/blog/[slug]/page.tsx b/apps/web/src/app/blog/[slug]/page.tsx index f15cc0cc..185f0821 100644 --- a/apps/web/src/app/blog/[slug]/page.tsx +++ b/apps/web/src/app/blog/[slug]/page.tsx @@ -3,6 +3,50 @@ import { notFound } from 'next/navigation' import Link from 'next/link' import { getPostBySlug, getAllPostSlugs } from '@/lib/blog' import { css } from '../../../../styled-system/css' +import { SkillDifficultyCharts } from '@/components/blog/SkillDifficultyCharts' +import { + AutomaticityMultiplierCharts, + ClassificationCharts, + EvidenceQualityCharts, + ThreeWayComparisonCharts, + ValidationResultsCharts, +} from '@/components/blog/ValidationCharts' + +interface ChartInjection { + component: React.ComponentType + /** Heading text to insert after (e.g., "### Example Trajectory") */ + insertAfter: string +} + +/** Blog posts that have interactive chart sections */ +const POSTS_WITH_CHARTS: Record = { + 'conjunctive-bkt-skill-tracing': [ + { + component: EvidenceQualityCharts, + insertAfter: '## Evidence Quality Modifiers', + }, + { + component: AutomaticityMultiplierCharts, + insertAfter: '### Automaticity Multipliers', + }, + { + component: ClassificationCharts, + insertAfter: '## Automaticity Classification', + }, + { + component: SkillDifficultyCharts, + insertAfter: '## Skill-Specific Difficulty Model', + }, + { + component: ThreeWayComparisonCharts, + insertAfter: '### 3-Way Comparison: BKT vs Fluency Multipliers', + }, + { + component: ValidationResultsCharts, + insertAfter: '### Convergence Speed Results', + }, + ], +} interface Props { params: { @@ -214,130 +258,7 @@ export default async function BlogPost({ params }: Props) { {/* Article Content */} -
+ {/* JSON-LD Structured Data */} @@ -363,3 +284,218 @@ export default async function BlogPost({ params }: Props) {
) } + +/** Content component that handles chart injection */ +function BlogContent({ slug, html }: { slug: string; html: string }) { + const chartConfigs = POSTS_WITH_CHARTS[slug] + + // If no charts for this post, render full content + if (!chartConfigs || chartConfigs.length === 0) { + return ( +
+ ) + } + + // Build injection points: find each heading and its position + const injections: Array<{ position: number; component: React.ComponentType }> = [] + + for (const config of chartConfigs) { + // Convert markdown heading to regex pattern for HTML + // "### Example Trajectory" → matches Example Trajectory + const headingLevel = (config.insertAfter.match(/^#+/)?.[0].length || 2).toString() + const headingText = config.insertAfter.replace(/^#+\s*/, '') + const escapedText = headingText.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\]\\]/g, '\\$&') + + // Match the closing tag of the heading + const pattern = new RegExp( + `]*>[^<]*${escapedText}[^<]*`, + 'i' + ) + const match = html.match(pattern) + + if (match && match.index !== undefined) { + // Insert after the heading (after closing tag) + const insertPosition = match.index + match[0].length + injections.push({ position: insertPosition, component: config.component }) + } + } + + // Sort by position (ascending) so we process in order + injections.sort((a, b) => a.position - b.position) + + // If no injections found, render full content + if (injections.length === 0) { + return ( +
+ ) + } + + // Split HTML at injection points and render with charts + const segments: React.ReactNode[] = [] + let lastPosition = 0 + + for (let i = 0; i < injections.length; i++) { + const { position, component: ChartComponent } = injections[i] + + // Add HTML segment before this injection + const htmlSegment = html.slice(lastPosition, position) + if (htmlSegment) { + segments.push( +
+ ) + } + + // Add the chart component + segments.push() + lastPosition = position + } + + // Add remaining HTML after last injection + const remainingHtml = html.slice(lastPosition) + if (remainingHtml) { + segments.push( +
+ ) + } + + return <>{segments} +} + +const articleContentStyles = css({ + fontSize: { base: '1rem', md: '1.125rem' }, + lineHeight: '1.75', + color: 'text.primary', + + // Typography styles for markdown content + '& h1': { + fontSize: { base: '1.875rem', md: '2.25rem' }, + fontWeight: 'bold', + mt: '2.5rem', + mb: '1rem', + lineHeight: '1.25', + color: 'text.primary', + }, + '& h2': { + fontSize: { base: '1.5rem', md: '1.875rem' }, + fontWeight: 'bold', + mt: '2rem', + mb: '0.875rem', + lineHeight: '1.3', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& h3': { + fontSize: { base: '1.25rem', md: '1.5rem' }, + fontWeight: 600, + mt: '1.75rem', + mb: '0.75rem', + lineHeight: '1.4', + color: 'accent.default', + }, + '& p': { + mb: '1.25rem', + }, + '& strong': { + fontWeight: 600, + color: 'text.primary', + }, + '& a': { + color: 'accent.emphasis', + textDecoration: 'underline', + _hover: { + color: 'accent.default', + }, + }, + '& ul, & ol': { + pl: '1.5rem', + mb: '1.25rem', + }, + '& li': { + mb: '0.5rem', + }, + '& code': { + bg: 'bg.muted', + px: '0.375rem', + py: '0.125rem', + borderRadius: '0.25rem', + fontSize: '0.875em', + fontFamily: 'monospace', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + }, + '& pre': { + bg: 'bg.surface', + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.default', + color: 'text.primary', + p: '1rem', + borderRadius: '0.5rem', + overflow: 'auto', + mb: '1.25rem', + }, + '& pre code': { + bg: 'transparent', + p: '0', + border: 'none', + color: 'inherit', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + }, + '& blockquote': { + borderLeft: '4px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + pl: '1rem', + py: '0.5rem', + my: '1.5rem', + color: 'text.secondary', + fontStyle: 'italic', + bg: 'accent.subtle', + borderRadius: '0 0.25rem 0.25rem 0', + }, + '& hr': { + my: '2rem', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + }, + '& table': { + width: '100%', + mb: '1.25rem', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + }, + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '1rem', + py: '0.75rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '1rem', + py: '0.75rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { + bg: 'accent.subtle', + }, +}) diff --git a/apps/web/src/components/blog/SkillDifficultyCharts.tsx b/apps/web/src/components/blog/SkillDifficultyCharts.tsx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2ad65792 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/src/components/blog/SkillDifficultyCharts.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,494 @@ +'use client' + +import { useState, useEffect } from 'react' +import ReactECharts from 'echarts-for-react' +import * as Tabs from '@radix-ui/react-tabs' +import { css } from '../../../styled-system/css' + +interface SkillData { + id: string + label: string + category: string + color: string + data: number[] +} + +interface ReportData { + generatedAt: string + summary: { + basicAvgExposures: number + fiveCompAvgExposures: number + tenCompAvgExposures: number + gapAt20Exposures: string + exposureRatioForEqualMastery: string + } + masteryCurves: { + exposurePoints: number[] + skills: SkillData[] + } + exposuresToMastery: { + target: string + categories: Array<{ + name: string + avgExposures: number + color: string + }> + } + fiftyPercentThresholds: { + exposuresFor50Percent: Record + ratiosRelativeToBasic: Record + } + masteryTable: Array> +} + +const tabStyles = css({ + display: 'flex', + flexDirection: 'column', + gap: '1rem', +}) + +const tabListStyles = css({ + display: 'flex', + gap: '0.25rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + pb: '0', + overflowX: 'auto', + flexWrap: 'nowrap', +}) + +const tabTriggerStyles = css({ + px: { base: '0.75rem', md: '1rem' }, + py: '0.75rem', + fontSize: { base: '0.75rem', md: '0.875rem' }, + fontWeight: 500, + color: 'text.muted', + bg: 'transparent', + border: 'none', + borderBottom: '2px solid transparent', + cursor: 'pointer', + whiteSpace: 'nowrap', + transition: 'all 0.2s', + _hover: { + color: 'text.primary', + bg: 'accent.subtle', + }, + '&[data-state="active"]': { + color: 'accent.emphasis', + borderBottomColor: 'accent.emphasis', + }, +}) + +const tabContentStyles = css({ + pt: '1.5rem', + outline: 'none', +}) + +const chartContainerStyles = css({ + bg: 'bg.surface', + borderRadius: '0.5rem', + p: { base: '0.5rem', md: '1rem' }, + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', +}) + +const summaryCardStyles = css({ + display: 'grid', + gridTemplateColumns: { base: '1fr', sm: 'repeat(2, 1fr)', md: 'repeat(4, 1fr)' }, + gap: '1rem', + mb: '1.5rem', +}) + +const statCardStyles = css({ + bg: 'bg.surface', + borderRadius: '0.5rem', + p: '1rem', + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + textAlign: 'center', +}) + +const statValueStyles = css({ + fontSize: { base: '1.5rem', md: '2rem' }, + fontWeight: 'bold', + color: 'accent.emphasis', +}) + +const statLabelStyles = css({ + fontSize: '0.75rem', + color: 'text.muted', + mt: '0.25rem', +}) + +export function SkillDifficultyCharts() { + const [data, setData] = useState(null) + const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true) + + useEffect(() => { + fetch('/data/skill-difficulty-report.json') + .then((res) => res.json()) + .then((json) => { + setData(json) + setLoading(false) + }) + .catch((err) => { + console.error('Failed to load skill difficulty data:', err) + setLoading(false) + }) + }, []) + + if (loading) { + return ( +
+ Loading skill difficulty data... +
+ ) + } + + if (!data) { + return ( +
+ Failed to load data. Run: npx tsx scripts/generateSkillDifficultyData.ts +
+ ) + } + + return ( +
+ {/* Summary Cards */} +
+
+
{Math.round(data.summary.basicAvgExposures)}
+
Basic skills (exposures to 80%)
+
+
+
{data.summary.fiveCompAvgExposures}
+
Five-complements (exposures to 80%)
+
+
+
{data.summary.tenCompAvgExposures}
+
Ten-complements (exposures to 80%)
+
+
+
{data.summary.exposureRatioForEqualMastery}x
+
Ten-comp vs basic ratio
+
+
+ + {/* Tabbed Charts */} + + + + Learning Curves + + + Time to Mastery + + + 50% Thresholds + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +function MasteryCurvesChart({ data }: { data: ReportData }) { + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number; axisValue: number }>) => { + const exposure = params[0]?.axisValue + let html = `${exposure} exposures
` + for (const p of params) { + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${p.value.toFixed(0)}%
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: data.masteryCurves.skills.map((s) => s.label), + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '15%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: data.masteryCurves.exposurePoints, + name: 'Exposures', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 30, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'P(correct) %', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 100, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}%' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: data.masteryCurves.skills.map((skill) => ({ + name: skill.label, + type: 'line', + data: skill.data, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 6, + lineStyle: { color: skill.color, width: 2 }, + itemStyle: { color: skill.color }, + })), + } + + return ( +
+

+ Mastery Curves by Skill Category +

+

+ Harder skills (higher difficulty multiplier) require more exposures to reach the same + mastery level. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function ExposuresToMasteryChart({ data }: { data: ReportData }) { + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: data.exposuresToMastery.categories.map((c) => c.name), + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Exposures to 80%', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + type: 'bar', + data: data.exposuresToMastery.categories.map((c) => ({ + value: Math.round(c.avgExposures), + itemStyle: { color: c.color }, + })), + barWidth: '50%', + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: '{c}', + color: '#9ca3af', + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Average Exposures to Reach 80% Mastery +

+

+ Ten-complements require roughly 2x the practice of basic skills to reach the same mastery + level. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function ThresholdsChart({ data }: { data: ReportData }) { + const skills = Object.entries(data.fiftyPercentThresholds.exposuresFor50Percent) + const labels = skills.map(([id]) => { + if (id.includes('basic')) return 'Basic' + if (id.includes('fiveComp')) return 'Five-Comp' + if (id.includes('9=10-1')) return 'Ten-Comp (Easy)' + return 'Ten-Comp (Hard)' + }) + const values = skills.map(([, v]) => v) + const colors = skills.map(([id]) => { + if (id.includes('basic')) return '#22c55e' + if (id.includes('fiveComp')) return '#eab308' + if (id.includes('9=10-1')) return '#f97316' + return '#ef4444' + }) + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: labels, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Exposures for 50%', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + type: 'bar', + data: values.map((v, i) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: colors[i] }, + })), + barWidth: '50%', + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: '{c}', + color: '#9ca3af', + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Exposures to Reach 50% Mastery (K Value) +

+

+ The K value in the Hill function determines where P(correct) = 50%. Higher K = harder skill. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function MasteryTable({ data }: { data: ReportData }) { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { + bg: 'accent.subtle', + }, + }) + + if (!data.masteryTable || data.masteryTable.length === 0) { + return
No table data available
+ } + + const headers = Object.keys(data.masteryTable[0]) + + return ( +
+

+ Mastery by Exposure Level +

+

+ P(correct) for each skill category at various exposure counts. +

+
+ + + + {headers.map((h) => ( + + ))} + + + + {data.masteryTable.map((row, i) => ( + + {headers.map((h) => ( + + ))} + + ))} + +
{h}
{row[h]}
+
+
+ ) +} diff --git a/apps/web/src/components/blog/ValidationCharts.tsx b/apps/web/src/components/blog/ValidationCharts.tsx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e6000a7c --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/src/components/blog/ValidationCharts.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,2376 @@ +'use client' + +import * as Tabs from '@radix-ui/react-tabs' +import ReactECharts from 'echarts-for-react' +import { useEffect, useState } from 'react' +import { css } from '../../../styled-system/css' + +const chartContainerStyles = css({ + bg: 'bg.surface', + borderRadius: '0.5rem', + p: { base: '0.5rem', md: '1rem' }, + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + my: '1.5rem', +}) + +const tabStyles = css({ + display: 'flex', + flexDirection: 'column', + gap: '1rem', +}) + +const tabListStyles = css({ + display: 'flex', + gap: '0.25rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + pb: '0', + overflowX: 'auto', + flexWrap: 'nowrap', +}) + +const tabTriggerStyles = css({ + px: { base: '0.75rem', md: '1rem' }, + py: '0.75rem', + fontSize: { base: '0.75rem', md: '0.875rem' }, + fontWeight: 500, + color: 'text.muted', + bg: 'transparent', + border: 'none', + borderBottom: '2px solid transparent', + cursor: 'pointer', + whiteSpace: 'nowrap', + transition: 'all 0.2s', + _hover: { + color: 'text.primary', + bg: 'accent.subtle', + }, + '&[data-state="active"]': { + color: 'accent.emphasis', + borderBottomColor: 'accent.emphasis', + }, +}) + +const tabContentStyles = css({ + pt: '1.5rem', + outline: 'none', +}) + +const summaryCardStyles = css({ + display: 'grid', + gridTemplateColumns: { base: '1fr', sm: 'repeat(2, 1fr)', md: 'repeat(3, 1fr)' }, + gap: '1rem', + mb: '1.5rem', +}) + +const statCardStyles = css({ + bg: 'bg.surface', + borderRadius: '0.5rem', + p: '1rem', + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + textAlign: 'center', +}) + +const statValueStyles = css({ + fontSize: { base: '1.5rem', md: '2rem' }, + fontWeight: 'bold', + color: 'accent.emphasis', +}) + +const statLabelStyles = css({ + fontSize: '0.75rem', + color: 'text.muted', + mt: '0.25rem', +}) + +// Type definitions for multi-skill trajectory data +interface TrajectorySkillData { + id: string + label: string + category: 'fiveComplement' | 'tenComplement' | 'basic' + color: string + adaptive: { + data: number[] + sessionsTo50: number | null + sessionsTo80: number | null + } + classic: { + data: number[] + sessionsTo50: number | null + sessionsTo80: number | null + } +} + +interface TrajectoryData { + generatedAt: string + config: { + seed: number + sessionCount: number + sessionDurationMinutes: number + } + summary: { + totalSkills: number + adaptiveWins50: number + classicWins50: number + ties50: number + adaptiveWins80: number + classicWins80: number + ties80: number + } + sessions: number[] + skills: TrajectorySkillData[] + comparisonTable: Array<{ + skill: string + category: string + adaptiveTo80: number | null + classicTo80: number | null + advantage: string | null + }> +} + +const skillButtonStyles = css({ + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + fontSize: '0.75rem', + fontWeight: 500, + color: 'text.muted', + bg: 'bg.surface', + border: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + borderRadius: '0.25rem', + cursor: 'pointer', + transition: 'all 0.2s', + whiteSpace: 'nowrap', + _hover: { + bg: 'accent.subtle', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + }, + '&[data-selected="true"]': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + }, +}) + +/** + * Example Trajectory Chart - Shows mastery progression over sessions + * for adaptive vs classic modes + */ +export function ExampleTrajectoryChart() { + // Data from blog post validation results + const sessions = [0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12] + const adaptiveMastery = [0, 34, 64, 72, 77, 83, 91, 94] + const classicMastery = [0, 9, 21, 39, 54, 61, 83, 91] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number; axisValue: number }>) => { + const session = params[0]?.axisValue + let html = `Session ${session}
` + for (const p of params) { + const color = p.seriesName === 'Adaptive' ? '#22c55e' : '#6b7280' + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${p.value}%
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: ['Adaptive', 'Classic'], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '15%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: sessions, + name: 'Session', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 30, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Mastery %', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 100, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}%' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Adaptive', + type: 'line', + data: adaptiveMastery, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 8, + lineStyle: { color: '#22c55e', width: 3 }, + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + markLine: { + silent: true, + lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' }, + data: [ + { yAxis: 50, label: { formatter: '50%', color: '#9ca3af' } }, + { yAxis: 80, label: { formatter: '80%', color: '#9ca3af' } }, + ], + }, + }, + { + name: 'Classic', + type: 'line', + data: classicMastery, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 8, + lineStyle: { color: '#6b7280', width: 3 }, + itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Mastery Progression: Adaptive vs Classic +

+

+ Fast learner deficient in fiveComplements.3=5-2. Adaptive reaches 80% mastery + by session 6; classic takes until session 9. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** + * Convergence Speed Chart - Shows sessions to reach 50% and 80% mastery + * across different skills for adaptive vs classic modes + * @deprecated Use ValidationResultsCharts instead + */ +export function ConvergenceSpeedChart() { + // Summarized data from blog post - focusing on key comparisons + const skills = [ + 'fiveComp\n3=5-2', + 'fiveCompSub\n-3=-5+2', + 'tenComp\n9=10-1', + 'tenComp\n5=10-5', + 'tenCompSub\n-9=+1-10', + ] + + // null represents "never reached 80%" + const adaptiveTo80: (number | null)[] = [6, 6, 5, 10, 7] + const classicTo80: (number | null)[] = [9, 8, 6, null, 12] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number | null; name: string }>) => { + const skill = params[0]?.name.replace('\n', ' ') + let html = `${skill}
` + for (const p of params) { + const value = p.value === null ? 'Never (>12 sessions)' : `${p.value} sessions` + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${value}
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: [ + { name: 'Adaptive', itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { name: 'Classic', itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } }, + ], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '15%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: skills, + axisLabel: { + color: '#9ca3af', + interval: 0, + fontSize: 10, + }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Sessions to 80%', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 14, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Adaptive', + type: 'bar', + data: adaptiveTo80.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + })), + barWidth: '35%', + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (params: { value: number | null }) => + params.value === null ? '—' : params.value, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Classic', + type: 'bar', + data: classicTo80.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' }, + })), + barWidth: '35%', + itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (params: { value: number | null }) => + params.value === null ? 'Never' : params.value, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Sessions to Reach 80% Mastery (Fast Learner) +

+

+ Adaptive mode consistently reaches mastery faster. "Never" indicates the mode did not reach + 80% within 12 sessions. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** + * Automaticity Multiplier Chart - Shows the non-linear curve + * from P(known) to cost multiplier + */ +export function AutomaticityMultiplierChart() { + // Generate smooth curve data + // Formula: multiplier = 4 - 3 * pKnown^2 (non-linear squared mapping) + const dataPoints: Array<[number, number]> = [] + for (let p = 0; p <= 1; p += 0.02) { + const multiplier = 4 - 3 * p * p + dataPoints.push([Math.round(p * 100), Number(multiplier.toFixed(2))]) + } + + // Key reference points from the blog post + const referencePoints = [ + { pKnown: 100, multiplier: 1.0 }, + { pKnown: 95, multiplier: 1.3 }, + { pKnown: 90, multiplier: 1.6 }, + { pKnown: 80, multiplier: 2.1 }, + { pKnown: 50, multiplier: 3.3 }, + { pKnown: 0, multiplier: 4.0 }, + ] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + formatter: (params: Array<{ value: [number, number] }>) => { + const [pKnown, multiplier] = params[0]?.value || [0, 0] + return `P(known): ${pKnown}%
Multiplier: ${multiplier}×` + }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'P(known) %', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 30, + min: 0, + max: 100, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}%' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { show: false }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Cost Multiplier', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 5, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}×' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Multiplier Curve', + type: 'line', + data: dataPoints, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'none', + lineStyle: { + color: '#8b5cf6', + width: 3, + }, + areaStyle: { + color: { + type: 'linear', + x: 0, + y: 0, + x2: 0, + y2: 1, + colorStops: [ + { offset: 0, color: 'rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.3)' }, + { offset: 1, color: 'rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.05)' }, + ], + }, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Reference Points', + type: 'scatter', + data: referencePoints.map((p) => [p.pKnown, p.multiplier]), + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 10, + itemStyle: { color: '#8b5cf6', borderColor: '#fff', borderWidth: 2 }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'right', + formatter: (params: { value: [number, number] }) => `${params.value[1]}×`, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Non-Linear Cost Multiplier Curve +

+

+ The squared mapping provides better differentiation at high mastery levels. A skill at 50% + P(known) costs 3.3× more than a fully automated skill. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** + * Combined Validation Results with Tabbed Interface + * Shows mastery progression, convergence comparison, and data table + */ +export function ValidationResultsCharts() { + const [trajectoryData, setTrajectoryData] = useState(null) + + useEffect(() => { + fetch('/data/ab-mastery-trajectories.json') + .then((res) => res.json()) + .then((data) => setTrajectoryData(data)) + .catch((err) => console.error('Failed to load trajectory data:', err)) + }, []) + + // Use data from JSON if available, otherwise fallback to hardcoded values + const summaryStats = trajectoryData?.summary ?? { + adaptiveWins50: 4, + classicWins50: 0, + adaptiveWins80: 6, + classicWins80: 0, + } + + return ( +
+ {/* Summary Cards */} +
+
+
+ {summaryStats.adaptiveWins50}-{summaryStats.classicWins50} +
+
Adaptive wins to 50% mastery
+
+
+
+ {summaryStats.adaptiveWins80}-{summaryStats.classicWins80} +
+
Adaptive wins to 80% mastery
+
+
+
25-100%
+
Faster mastery with adaptive
+
+
+ + {/* Tabbed Charts */} + + + + All Skills + + + Single Skill + + + Convergence + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +/** Multi-skill trajectory chart showing all skills at once */ +function MultiSkillTrajectoryChart({ data }: { data: TrajectoryData | null }) { + const [showAdaptive, setShowAdaptive] = useState(true) + + if (!data) { + return ( +
+

+ Loading trajectory data... +

+
+ ) + } + + const sessions = data.sessions + + // Build series for all skills + const series = data.skills.map((skill) => ({ + name: skill.label, + type: 'line' as const, + data: showAdaptive ? skill.adaptive.data : skill.classic.data, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 6, + lineStyle: { color: skill.color, width: 2 }, + itemStyle: { color: skill.color }, + })) + + // Add threshold marklines to first series + if (series.length > 0) { + ;(series[0] as Record).markLine = { + silent: true, + lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' }, + data: [ + { yAxis: 50, label: { formatter: '50%', color: '#9ca3af' } }, + { yAxis: 80, label: { formatter: '80%', color: '#9ca3af' } }, + ], + } + } + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number; color: string }>) => { + const session = (params[0] as unknown as { axisValue: number })?.axisValue + let html = `Session ${session}
` + for (const p of params) { + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${p.value}%
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: data.skills.map((s) => ({ + name: s.label, + itemStyle: { color: s.color }, + })), + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af', fontSize: 10 }, + type: 'scroll', + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '20%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: sessions, + name: 'Session', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 30, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Mastery %', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 100, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}%' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series, + } + + return ( +
+
+

+ All Skills: {showAdaptive ? 'Adaptive' : 'Classic'} Mode +

+
+ + +
+
+

+ Mastery trajectories for {data.skills.length} deficient skills over {sessions.length}{' '} + sessions. Toggle to compare adaptive vs classic modes. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** Interactive single-skill trajectory chart with skill selector */ +function InteractiveTrajectoryChart({ data }: { data: TrajectoryData | null }) { + const [selectedSkillIndex, setSelectedSkillIndex] = useState(0) + + if (!data) { + return ( +
+

+ Loading trajectory data... +

+
+ ) + } + + const selectedSkill = data.skills[selectedSkillIndex] + const sessions = data.sessions + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number; axisValue: number }>) => { + const session = params[0]?.axisValue + let html = `Session ${session}
` + for (const p of params) { + const color = p.seriesName === 'Adaptive' ? '#22c55e' : '#6b7280' + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${p.value}%
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: [ + { name: 'Adaptive', itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { name: 'Classic', itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } }, + ], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '15%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: sessions, + name: 'Session', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 30, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Mastery %', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 100, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}%' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Adaptive', + type: 'line', + data: selectedSkill.adaptive.data, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 8, + lineStyle: { color: '#22c55e', width: 3 }, + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + markLine: { + silent: true, + lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' }, + data: [ + { yAxis: 50, label: { formatter: '50%', color: '#9ca3af' } }, + { yAxis: 80, label: { formatter: '80%', color: '#9ca3af' } }, + ], + }, + }, + { + name: 'Classic', + type: 'line', + data: selectedSkill.classic.data, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 8, + lineStyle: { color: '#6b7280', width: 3 }, + itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' }, + }, + ], + } + + // Calculate advantage for selected skill + const adaptiveTo80 = selectedSkill.adaptive.sessionsTo80 + const classicTo80 = selectedSkill.classic.sessionsTo80 + let advantageText = '' + if (adaptiveTo80 !== null && classicTo80 !== null) { + const diff = classicTo80 - adaptiveTo80 + advantageText = diff > 0 ? `Adaptive ${diff} sessions faster` : 'Same speed' + } else if (adaptiveTo80 !== null && classicTo80 === null) { + advantageText = 'Classic never reached 80%' + } + + return ( +
+

+ Mastery Progression: {selectedSkill.label} +

+
+ {data.skills.map((skill, index) => ( + + ))} +
+

+ Adaptive: 80% by session {adaptiveTo80 ?? 'never'} |{' '} + Classic: 80% by session {classicTo80 ?? 'never'} + {advantageText && ( + ({advantageText}) + )} +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** Internal: Convergence bar chart for tabs - updated to use data prop */ +function ConvergenceChart({ data }: { data: TrajectoryData | null }) { + // Build data from trajectoryData if available, otherwise use fallback + const skills = data?.skills.map((s) => s.label.replace(': ', '\n')) ?? [ + 'fiveComp\n3=5-2', + 'fiveCompSub\n-3=-5+2', + 'tenComp\n9=10-1', + 'tenComp\n5=10-5', + 'tenCompSub\n-9=+1-10', + ] + + const adaptiveTo80 = data?.skills.map((s) => s.adaptive.sessionsTo80) ?? [6, 6, 5, 10, 7] + + const classicTo80 = data?.skills.map((s) => s.classic.sessionsTo80) ?? [9, 8, 6, null, 12] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number | null; name: string }>) => { + const skill = params[0]?.name.replace('\n', ' ') + let html = `${skill}
` + for (const p of params) { + const value = p.value === null ? 'Never (>12 sessions)' : `${p.value} sessions` + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${value}
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: [ + { name: 'Adaptive', itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { name: 'Classic', itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } }, + ], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '15%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: skills, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', interval: 0, fontSize: 10 }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Sessions to 80%', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 14, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Adaptive', + type: 'bar', + data: adaptiveTo80.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + })), + barWidth: '35%', + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (params: { value: number | null }) => + params.value === null ? '—' : params.value, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Classic', + type: 'bar', + data: classicTo80.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' }, + label: + v === null + ? { show: true, position: 'inside', formatter: 'Never', color: '#ef4444' } + : undefined, + })), + barWidth: '35%', + itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (params: { value: number | null }) => + params.value === null ? 'Never' : params.value, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Sessions to Reach 80% Mastery by Skill +

+

+ Adaptive mode consistently reaches mastery faster across all tested skills. "—" or "Never" + indicates the mode did not reach 80% within 12 sessions. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** Internal: Data table for validation results tabs - updated to use data prop */ +function ValidationDataTable({ data }: { data: TrajectoryData | null }) { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { + bg: 'accent.subtle', + }, + }) + + // Use comparison table from data if available + const comparisonData = data?.comparisonTable ?? [ + { skill: 'fiveComp 3=5-2', adaptiveTo80: 6, classicTo80: 9, advantage: 'Adaptive +3 sessions' }, + ] + + return ( +
+

+ A/B Comparison Summary +

+

+ Sessions to reach 80% mastery for each skill, comparing adaptive vs classic modes. +

+
+ + + + + + + + + + + {comparisonData.map((row) => ( + + + + + + + ))} + +
SkillAdaptive → 80%Classic → 80%Advantage
+ {row.skill} + + {row.adaptiveTo80 ?? 'never'} + {row.classicTo80 ?? 'never'} + {row.advantage ?? '—'} +
+
+
+ ) +} + +/** + * 3-Way Comparison Charts with Tabbed Interface + * Compares Classic, Adaptive (fluency), and Adaptive (full BKT) + */ +export function ThreeWayComparisonCharts() { + return ( +
+ {/* Summary insight */} +
+
+
Same
+
Learning rate: fluency vs BKT
+
+
+
Simpler
+
Using BKT for both concerns
+
+
+
Targeting
+
Where the benefit comes from
+
+
+ + {/* Tabbed Charts */} + + + + Mode Comparison + + + Cognitive Fatigue + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +/** Internal: 3-way comparison bar chart */ +function ThreeWayComparisonChart() { + const skills = ['fiveComp\n3=5-2', 'fiveCompSub\n-3=-5+2'] + + // Sessions to reach thresholds + const classicTo50 = [5, 4] + const classicTo80 = [9, 8] + const adaptiveFluencyTo50 = [3, 3] + const adaptiveFluencyTo80 = [6, 6] + const adaptiveBktTo50 = [3, 3] + const adaptiveBktTo80 = [6, 6] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + }, + legend: { + data: [ + { name: 'Classic', itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } }, + { name: 'Adaptive (fluency)', itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { name: 'Adaptive (BKT)', itemStyle: { color: '#3b82f6' } }, + ], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '18%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: skills, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', interval: 0, fontSize: 11 }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Sessions to 80%', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 12, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Classic', + type: 'bar', + data: classicTo80.map((v) => ({ value: v, itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } })), + label: { show: true, position: 'top', color: '#9ca3af', fontSize: 11 }, + }, + { + name: 'Adaptive (fluency)', + type: 'bar', + data: adaptiveFluencyTo80.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + })), + label: { show: true, position: 'top', color: '#9ca3af', fontSize: 11 }, + }, + { + name: 'Adaptive (BKT)', + type: 'bar', + data: adaptiveBktTo80.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#3b82f6' }, + })), + label: { show: true, position: 'top', color: '#9ca3af', fontSize: 11 }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Sessions to 80% Mastery: 3-Way Comparison +

+

+ Both adaptive modes perform identically—the benefit comes from BKT targeting, not + from BKT-based cost calculation. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** Internal: Fatigue comparison chart */ +function FatigueComparisonChart() { + const skills = ['fiveComp 3=5-2', 'fiveCompSub -3=-5+2'] + + const classicFatigue = [120.3, 131.9] + const adaptiveFluencyFatigue = [122.8, 133.6] + const adaptiveBktFatigue = [122.8, 133.0] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + formatter: (params: Array<{ seriesName: string; value: number; name: string }>) => { + let html = `${params[0]?.name}
` + for (const p of params) { + html += `${p.seriesName}: ${p.value.toFixed(1)}
` + } + return html + }, + }, + legend: { + data: [ + { name: 'Classic', itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } }, + { name: 'Adaptive (fluency)', itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { name: 'Adaptive (BKT)', itemStyle: { color: '#3b82f6' } }, + ], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '18%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: skills, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', interval: 0, fontSize: 11 }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Fatigue/Session', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 50, + min: 100, + max: 150, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Classic', + type: 'bar', + data: classicFatigue.map((v) => ({ value: v, itemStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } })), + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { value: number }) => p.value.toFixed(1), + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 10, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Adaptive (fluency)', + type: 'bar', + data: adaptiveFluencyFatigue.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + })), + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { value: number }) => p.value.toFixed(1), + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 10, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Adaptive (BKT)', + type: 'bar', + data: adaptiveBktFatigue.map((v) => ({ + value: v, + itemStyle: { color: '#3b82f6' }, + })), + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { value: number }) => p.value.toFixed(1), + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 10, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Cognitive Fatigue Per Session +

+

+ All modes have similar cognitive load. Adaptive modes are slightly higher because they + include more challenging (weak skill) problems. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +/** Internal: 3-way comparison data table */ +function ThreeWayDataTable() { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.5rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'center', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + fontSize: '0.75rem', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.5rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + textAlign: 'center', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { + bg: 'accent.subtle', + }, + }) + + const data = [ + { + skill: 'fiveComplements.3=5-2', + classicTo50: 5, + classicTo80: 9, + classicFatigue: 120.3, + fluencyTo50: 3, + fluencyTo80: 6, + fluencyFatigue: 122.8, + bktTo50: 3, + bktTo80: 6, + bktFatigue: 122.8, + }, + { + skill: 'fiveCompSub.-3=-5+2', + classicTo50: 4, + classicTo80: 8, + classicFatigue: 131.9, + fluencyTo50: 3, + fluencyTo80: 6, + fluencyFatigue: 133.6, + bktTo50: 3, + bktTo80: 6, + bktFatigue: 133.0, + }, + ] + + return ( +
+

+ 3-Way Comparison Data +

+

+ Sessions to reach mastery thresholds and cognitive fatigue per session. +

+
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {data.map((row) => ( + + + + + + + + + + + + + ))} + +
Skill + Classic + + Adaptive (fluency) + + Adaptive (BKT) +
→50%→80%Fatigue→50%→80%Fatigue→50%→80%Fatigue
+ {row.skill} + {row.classicTo50}{row.classicTo80}{row.classicFatigue}{row.fluencyTo50}{row.fluencyTo80}{row.fluencyFatigue}{row.bktTo50}{row.bktTo80}{row.bktFatigue}
+
+
+ ) +} + +/** + * Evidence Quality Charts with Tabbed Interface + * Shows Help Level weights and Response Time weights + */ +export function EvidenceQualityCharts() { + return ( +
+ + + + Help Level Weights + + + Response Time Weights + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +function HelpLevelChart() { + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '12%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '15%', + containLabel: false, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: ['No help', 'Minor hint', 'Significant help', 'Full solution'], + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', fontSize: 11 }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Evidence Weight', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 50, + min: 0, + max: 1.2, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + type: 'bar', + data: [ + { value: 1.0, itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { value: 0.8, itemStyle: { color: '#84cc16' } }, + { value: 0.5, itemStyle: { color: '#eab308' } }, + { value: 0.5, itemStyle: { color: '#f97316' } }, + ], + barWidth: '50%', + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { value: number }) => `${p.value}×`, + color: '#9ca3af', + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Evidence Weight by Help Level +

+

+ Using hints or scaffolding reduces evidence strength. A correct answer with full solution + shown provides only 50% of the evidence weight. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function ResponseTimeChart() { + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + }, + legend: { + data: [ + { name: 'Correct', itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { name: 'Incorrect', itemStyle: { color: '#ef4444' } }, + ], + bottom: 0, + textStyle: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '12%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '15%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: false, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: ['Very fast', 'Normal', 'Slow'], + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Evidence Weight', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 50, + min: 0, + max: 1.4, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Correct', + type: 'bar', + data: [1.2, 1.0, 0.8], + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { value: number }) => `${p.value}×`, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Incorrect', + type: 'bar', + data: [0.5, 1.0, 1.2], + itemStyle: { color: '#ef4444' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { value: number }) => `${p.value}×`, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Evidence Weight by Response Time +

+

+ Fast correct answers suggest automaticity (1.2×). Slow incorrect answers suggest genuine + confusion (1.2×). Very fast incorrect answers are likely careless slips (0.5×). +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function EvidenceQualityTable() { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { bg: 'accent.subtle' }, + }) + + return ( +
+

+ Evidence Quality Data +

+
+
+
+ Help Level Weights +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
Help LevelWeightInterpretation
0 (none)1.0Full evidence
1 (minor hint)0.8Slight reduction
2 (significant help)0.5Halved evidence
3 (full solution)0.5Halved evidence
+
+
+
+ Response Time Weights +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
ConditionWeightInterpretation
Very fast correct1.2Strong automaticity signal
Normal correct1.0Standard evidence
Slow correct0.8Might have struggled
Very fast incorrect0.5Careless slip
Slow incorrect1.2Genuine confusion
+
+
+
+ ) +} + +/** + * Automaticity Multiplier Charts with Tabbed Interface + * Shows the non-linear curve and data table + */ +export function AutomaticityMultiplierCharts() { + return ( +
+ + + + Multiplier Curve + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +function MultiplierCurveChart() { + const dataPoints: Array<[number, number]> = [] + for (let p = 0; p <= 1; p += 0.02) { + const multiplier = 4 - 3 * p * p + dataPoints.push([Math.round(p * 100), Number(multiplier.toFixed(2))]) + } + + const referencePoints = [ + { pKnown: 100, multiplier: 1.0 }, + { pKnown: 95, multiplier: 1.3 }, + { pKnown: 90, multiplier: 1.6 }, + { pKnown: 80, multiplier: 2.1 }, + { pKnown: 50, multiplier: 3.3 }, + { pKnown: 0, multiplier: 4.0 }, + ] + + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + formatter: (params: Array<{ value: [number, number] }>) => { + const [pKnown, multiplier] = params[0]?.value || [0, 0] + return `P(known): ${pKnown}%
Multiplier: ${multiplier}×` + }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'P(known) %', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 30, + min: 0, + max: 100, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}%' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { show: false }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Cost Multiplier', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 5, + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af', formatter: '{value}×' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Multiplier Curve', + type: 'line', + data: dataPoints, + smooth: true, + symbol: 'none', + lineStyle: { color: '#8b5cf6', width: 3 }, + areaStyle: { + color: { + type: 'linear', + x: 0, + y: 0, + x2: 0, + y2: 1, + colorStops: [ + { offset: 0, color: 'rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.3)' }, + { offset: 1, color: 'rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.05)' }, + ], + }, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Reference Points', + type: 'scatter', + data: referencePoints.map((p) => [p.pKnown, p.multiplier]), + symbol: 'circle', + symbolSize: 10, + itemStyle: { color: '#8b5cf6', borderColor: '#fff', borderWidth: 2 }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'right', + formatter: (params: { value: [number, number] }) => `${params.value[1]}×`, + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Non-Linear Cost Multiplier Curve +

+

+ The squared mapping provides better differentiation at high mastery levels. A skill at 50% + P(known) costs 3.3× more than a fully automated skill. +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function MultiplierDataTable() { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { bg: 'accent.subtle' }, + }) + + const data = [ + { pKnown: '100%', multiplier: '1.0×', meaning: 'Fully automated' }, + { pKnown: '95%', multiplier: '1.3×', meaning: 'Nearly automated' }, + { pKnown: '90%', multiplier: '1.6×', meaning: 'Solid' }, + { pKnown: '80%', multiplier: '2.1×', meaning: 'Good but not automatic' }, + { pKnown: '50%', multiplier: '3.3×', meaning: 'Halfway there' }, + { pKnown: '0%', multiplier: '4.0×', meaning: 'Just starting' }, + ] + + return ( +
+

+ Automaticity Multiplier Data +

+

+ Reference points showing how P(known) maps to cost multiplier. +

+ + + + + + + + + + {data.map((row) => ( + + + + + + ))} + +
P(known)MultiplierMeaning
{row.pKnown}{row.multiplier}{row.meaning}
+
+ ) +} + +/** + * Staleness Indicators Chart with Tabbed Interface + */ +export function StalenessIndicatorsCharts() { + return ( +
+ + + + Visual Timeline + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +function StalenessVisual() { + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'axis', + axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '4%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '15%', + containLabel: true, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: ['< 7 days', '7-14 days', '14-30 days', '> 30 days'], + axisLabel: { color: '#9ca3af' }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'value', + name: 'Concern Level', + nameLocation: 'middle', + nameGap: 40, + min: 0, + max: 4, + axisLabel: { + color: '#9ca3af', + formatter: (v: number) => ['', 'Low', 'Medium', 'High', 'Critical'][v] || '', + }, + axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151' } }, + splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#374151', type: 'dashed' } }, + }, + series: [ + { + type: 'bar', + data: [ + { value: 0, itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' } }, + { value: 1, itemStyle: { color: '#84cc16' } }, + { value: 2, itemStyle: { color: '#eab308' } }, + { value: 3, itemStyle: { color: '#ef4444' } }, + ], + barWidth: '50%', + label: { + show: true, + position: 'top', + formatter: (p: { dataIndex: number }) => + ['(none)', 'Not practiced\nrecently', 'Getting\nrusty', 'Very stale'][p.dataIndex], + color: '#9ca3af', + fontSize: 10, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ Staleness Warning Levels +

+

+ Skills are flagged based on days since last practice. Staleness is shown as a separate + indicator, not by decaying P(known). +

+ +
+ ) +} + +function StalenessDataTable() { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { bg: 'accent.subtle' }, + }) + + return ( +
+

+ Staleness Indicator Data +

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
Days Since PracticeWarning
< 7(none)
7-14"Not practiced recently"
14-30"Getting rusty"
> 30"Very stale — may need review"
+
+ ) +} + +/** + * Classification Chart with Tabbed Interface + */ +export function ClassificationCharts() { + return ( +
+ + + + Classification Zones + + + Data Table + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ ) +} + +function ClassificationVisual() { + // Horizontal stacked bar showing P(known) zones from 0-100% + const option = { + backgroundColor: 'transparent', + tooltip: { + trigger: 'item', + formatter: (p: { name: string; value: number; seriesName: string }) => { + const descriptions: Record = { + Struggling: 'P(known) < 50%: Student has not yet internalized this pattern', + Learning: 'P(known) 50-80%: Making progress but not yet automatic', + Automated: 'P(known) ≥ 80%: Pattern is reliably automatic', + } + return `${p.seriesName}
${descriptions[p.seriesName] || ''}` + }, + }, + grid: { + left: '3%', + right: '3%', + bottom: '10%', + top: '10%', + containLabel: false, + }, + xAxis: { + type: 'value', + min: 0, + max: 100, + show: false, + }, + yAxis: { + type: 'category', + data: ['Classification'], + show: false, + }, + series: [ + { + name: 'Struggling', + type: 'bar', + stack: 'total', + data: [50], + itemStyle: { color: '#ef4444' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'inside', + formatter: 'Struggling\n<50%', + color: '#fff', + fontWeight: 'bold', + fontSize: 11, + }, + barWidth: 40, + }, + { + name: 'Learning', + type: 'bar', + stack: 'total', + data: [30], + itemStyle: { color: '#eab308' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'inside', + formatter: 'Learning\n50-80%', + color: '#000', + fontWeight: 'bold', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + { + name: 'Automated', + type: 'bar', + stack: 'total', + data: [20], + itemStyle: { color: '#22c55e' }, + label: { + show: true, + position: 'inside', + formatter: 'Automated\n≥80%', + color: '#fff', + fontWeight: 'bold', + fontSize: 11, + }, + }, + ], + } + + return ( +
+

+ P(known) Classification Zones +

+

+ Skills are classified into zones based on their P(known) value when confidence meets + threshold. Low-confidence estimates default to "Learning" regardless of P(known). +

+ +

+ Note: Classification requires confidence ≥ threshold (default 50%). Skills with insufficient + data are always classified as "Learning" until more evidence accumulates. +

+
+ ) +} + +function ClassificationDataTable() { + const tableStyles = css({ + width: '100%', + borderCollapse: 'collapse', + fontSize: '0.875rem', + '& th': { + bg: 'accent.muted', + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + textAlign: 'left', + fontWeight: 600, + borderBottom: '2px solid', + borderColor: 'accent.default', + color: 'accent.emphasis', + }, + '& td': { + px: '0.75rem', + py: '0.5rem', + borderBottom: '1px solid', + borderColor: 'border.muted', + color: 'text.secondary', + }, + '& tr:hover td': { bg: 'accent.subtle' }, + }) + + return ( +
+

+ Classification Criteria +

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
ClassificationCriteria
AutomatedP(known) ≥ 80% AND confidence ≥ threshold
StrugglingP(known) < 50% AND confidence ≥ threshold
LearningEverything else (including low-confidence estimates)
+
+ ) +} diff --git a/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/SimulatedStudent.ts b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/SimulatedStudent.ts index aacabead..123cbe19 100644 --- a/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/SimulatedStudent.ts +++ b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/SimulatedStudent.ts @@ -24,6 +24,64 @@ import type { GeneratedProblem, HelpLevel } from '@/db/schema/session-plans' import type { SeededRandom } from './SeededRandom' import type { SimulatedAnswer, StudentProfile } from './types' +/** + * Skill difficulty multipliers for K (halfMaxExposure). + * + * Higher multiplier = harder skill = needs more exposures to reach 50% mastery. + * + * Example: If profile.halfMaxExposure = 10: + * - basic.directAddition: K = 10 × 0.8 = 8 (easier, 50% at 8 exposures) + * - fiveComplements.*: K = 10 × 1.2 = 12 (harder, 50% at 12 exposures) + * - tenComplements.*: K = 10 × 1.8 = 18 (hardest, 50% at 18 exposures) + */ +const SKILL_DIFFICULTY_MULTIPLIER: Record = { + // Basic skills - easier, foundational + 'basic.directAddition': 0.8, + 'basic.directSubtraction': 0.8, + 'basic.heavenBead': 0.9, + 'basic.heavenBeadSubtraction': 0.9, + 'basic.simpleCombinations': 1.0, + 'basic.simpleCombinationsSub': 1.0, + + // Five-complements - moderate difficulty (single column, but requires decomposition) + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1': 1.2, + 'fiveComplements.3=5-2': 1.2, + 'fiveComplements.2=5-3': 1.2, + 'fiveComplements.1=5-4': 1.2, + 'fiveComplementsSub.-4=-5+1': 1.3, + 'fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2': 1.3, + 'fiveComplementsSub.-2=-5+3': 1.3, + 'fiveComplementsSub.-1=-5+4': 1.3, + + // Ten-complements - hardest (cross-column, carrying/borrowing) + 'tenComplements.9=10-1': 1.6, + 'tenComplements.8=10-2': 1.7, + 'tenComplements.7=10-3': 1.7, + 'tenComplements.6=10-4': 1.8, + 'tenComplements.5=10-5': 1.8, + 'tenComplements.4=10-6': 1.8, + 'tenComplements.3=10-7': 1.9, + 'tenComplements.2=10-8': 1.9, + 'tenComplements.1=10-9': 2.0, // Hardest - biggest adjustment + 'tenComplementsSub.-9=+1-10': 1.7, + 'tenComplementsSub.-8=+2-10': 1.8, + 'tenComplementsSub.-7=+3-10': 1.8, + 'tenComplementsSub.-6=+4-10': 1.9, + 'tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10': 1.9, + 'tenComplementsSub.-4=+6-10': 1.9, + 'tenComplementsSub.-3=+7-10': 2.0, + 'tenComplementsSub.-2=+8-10': 2.0, + 'tenComplementsSub.-1=+9-10': 2.1, // Hardest subtraction +} + +/** + * Get the difficulty multiplier for a skill. + * Returns 1.0 for unknown skills (baseline difficulty). + */ +function getSkillDifficultyMultiplier(skillId: string): number { + return SKILL_DIFFICULTY_MULTIPLIER[skillId] ?? 1.0 +} + /** * Convert true probability to a cognitive load multiplier. * @@ -154,11 +212,10 @@ export class SimulatedStudent { let probability = 1.0 for (const skillId of skillIds) { const exposure = this.skillExposures.get(skillId) ?? 0 - const skillProb = this.hillFunction( - exposure, - this.profile.halfMaxExposure, - this.profile.hillCoefficient - ) + // Apply skill-specific difficulty multiplier to K + // Higher multiplier = harder skill = needs more exposures + const effectiveK = this.profile.halfMaxExposure * getSkillDifficultyMultiplier(skillId) + const skillProb = this.hillFunction(exposure, effectiveK, this.profile.hillCoefficient) probability *= skillProb } @@ -234,10 +291,17 @@ export class SimulatedStudent { /** * Get the computed P(correct) for a skill based on current exposure. * This is the "ground truth" that BKT is trying to estimate. + * + * Uses skill-specific difficulty multiplier: + * - Ten-complements (multiplier ~1.8) need ~80% more exposures than baseline + * - Five-complements (multiplier ~1.2) need ~20% more exposures than baseline + * - Basic skills (multiplier ~0.8-0.9) need fewer exposures */ getTrueProbability(skillId: string): number { const exposure = this.skillExposures.get(skillId) ?? 0 - return this.hillFunction(exposure, this.profile.halfMaxExposure, this.profile.hillCoefficient) + // Apply skill-specific difficulty multiplier to K + const effectiveK = this.profile.halfMaxExposure * getSkillDifficultyMultiplier(skillId) + return this.hillFunction(exposure, effectiveK, this.profile.hillCoefficient) } /** diff --git a/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/__snapshots__/skill-difficulty.test.ts.snap b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/__snapshots__/skill-difficulty.test.ts.snap new file mode 100644 index 00000000..11c179fe --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/__snapshots__/skill-difficulty.test.ts.snap @@ -0,0 +1,1024 @@ +// Vitest Snapshot v1, https://vitest.dev/guide/snapshot.html + +exports[`A/B Mastery Trajectories > should capture mastery trajectories for multiple deficient skills > ab-mastery-trajectories 1`] = ` +{ + "config": { + "seed": 98765, + "sessionCount": 12, + "sessionDurationMinutes": 15, + }, + "summary": { + "adaptiveWins50": 4, + "adaptiveWins80": 6, + "classicWins50": 0, + "classicWins80": 0, + "skills": [ + "fiveComplements.3=5-2", + "fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2", + "tenComplements.9=10-1", + "tenComplements.5=10-5", + "tenComplementsSub.-9=+1-10", + "tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10", + ], + "ties50": 2, + "ties80": 0, + }, + "trajectories": { + "fiveComplements.3=5-2": { + "adaptive": [ + { + "mastery": 0.25, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.75, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.85, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.89, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.93, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.94, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.95, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.98, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.98, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "classic": [ + { + "mastery": 0.25, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.54, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.67, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.82, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.87, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.9, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.93, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.94, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.98, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "sessionsTo50Adaptive": 2, + "sessionsTo50Classic": 2, + "sessionsTo80Adaptive": 3, + "sessionsTo80Classic": 4, + }, + "fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2": { + "adaptive": [ + { + "mastery": 0.02, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.27, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.57, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.8, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.89, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.9, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.92, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.93, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.94, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.95, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "classic": [ + { + "mastery": 0.02, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.27, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.32, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.54, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.63, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.7, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.79, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.84, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.87, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.88, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.9, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.92, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "sessionsTo50Adaptive": 3, + "sessionsTo50Classic": 4, + "sessionsTo80Adaptive": 4, + "sessionsTo80Classic": 8, + }, + "tenComplements.5=10-5": { + "adaptive": [ + { + "mastery": 0.05, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.44, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.71, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.82, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.88, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.9, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.91, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.92, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.93, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.94, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.95, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.95, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "classic": [ + { + "mastery": 0.05, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.1, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.16, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.31, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.44, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.47, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.64, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.72, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.77, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.83, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.87, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.87, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "sessionsTo50Adaptive": 3, + "sessionsTo50Classic": 7, + "sessionsTo80Adaptive": 4, + "sessionsTo80Classic": 10, + }, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": { + "adaptive": [ + { + "mastery": 0.2, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.63, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.85, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.89, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.93, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.94, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.95, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.98, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.98, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "classic": [ + { + "mastery": 0.2, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.5, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.69, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.78, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.86, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.9, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.93, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.95, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.96, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.97, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.98, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "sessionsTo50Adaptive": 2, + "sessionsTo50Classic": 2, + "sessionsTo80Adaptive": 3, + "sessionsTo80Classic": 5, + }, + "tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10": { + "adaptive": [ + { + "mastery": 0.01, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.06, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.44, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.67, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.78, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.81, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.83, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.85, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.87, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.88, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.89, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.9, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "classic": [ + { + "mastery": 0.01, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.06, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.15, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.25, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.29, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.38, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.44, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.5, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.61, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.67, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.7, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.74, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "sessionsTo50Adaptive": 4, + "sessionsTo50Classic": 8, + "sessionsTo80Adaptive": 6, + "sessionsTo80Classic": null, + }, + "tenComplementsSub.-9=+1-10": { + "adaptive": [ + { + "mastery": 0.03, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.4, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.7, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.72, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.79, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.8, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.83, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.87, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.89, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.91, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.92, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.92, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "classic": [ + { + "mastery": 0.03, + "session": 1, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.11, + "session": 2, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.22, + "session": 3, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.33, + "session": 4, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.53, + "session": 5, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.56, + "session": 6, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.63, + "session": 7, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.68, + "session": 8, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.72, + "session": 9, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.76, + "session": 10, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.77, + "session": 11, + }, + { + "mastery": 0.8, + "session": 12, + }, + ], + "sessionsTo50Adaptive": 3, + "sessionsTo50Classic": 5, + "sessionsTo80Adaptive": 6, + "sessionsTo80Classic": 12, + }, + }, +} +`; + +exports[`A/B Test: Skill Difficulty Impact > should show different learning curves with vs without difficulty multipliers > skill-difficulty-ab-comparison 1`] = ` +{ + "differences": { + "basic.directAddition": [ + -0.08000000000000002, + -0.10999999999999999, + -0.09000000000000008, + -0.05999999999999994, + -0.050000000000000044, + -0.030000000000000027, + -0.020000000000000018, + -0.020000000000000018, + ], + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": [ + 0.05000000000000002, + 0.09000000000000002, + 0.07999999999999996, + 0.06000000000000005, + 0.04999999999999993, + 0.040000000000000036, + 0.019999999999999907, + 0.010000000000000009, + ], + "tenComplements.1=10-9": [ + 0.14, + 0.3, + 0.32999999999999996, + 0.30000000000000004, + 0.25, + 0.21000000000000008, + 0.1399999999999999, + 0.09999999999999998, + ], + "tenComplements.9=10-1": [ + 0.11000000000000001, + 0.21999999999999997, + 0.21999999999999997, + 0.19000000000000006, + 0.15000000000000002, + 0.12, + 0.07999999999999996, + 0.04999999999999993, + ], + }, + "summary": { + "withDifficulty": { + "basic.directAddition": { + "avgAt20": 0.86, + }, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.74, + }, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": { + "avgAt20": 0.5, + }, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.61, + }, + }, + "withoutDifficulty": { + "basic.directAddition": { + "avgAt20": 0.8, + }, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.8, + }, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": { + "avgAt20": 0.8, + }, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": { + "avgAt20": 0.8, + }, + }, + }, + "withDifficulty": { + "basic.directAddition": [ + 0.28, + 0.61, + 0.78, + 0.86, + 0.91, + 0.93, + 0.96, + 0.98, + ], + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": [ + 0.15, + 0.41, + 0.61, + 0.74, + 0.81, + 0.86, + 0.92, + 0.95, + ], + "tenComplements.1=10-9": [ + 0.06, + 0.2, + 0.36, + 0.5, + 0.61, + 0.69, + 0.8, + 0.86, + ], + "tenComplements.9=10-1": [ + 0.09, + 0.28, + 0.47, + 0.61, + 0.71, + 0.78, + 0.86, + 0.91, + ], + }, + "withoutDifficulty": { + "basic.directAddition": [ + 0.2, + 0.5, + 0.69, + 0.8, + 0.86, + 0.9, + 0.94, + 0.96, + ], + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": [ + 0.2, + 0.5, + 0.69, + 0.8, + 0.86, + 0.9, + 0.94, + 0.96, + ], + "tenComplements.1=10-9": [ + 0.2, + 0.5, + 0.69, + 0.8, + 0.86, + 0.9, + 0.94, + 0.96, + ], + "tenComplements.9=10-1": [ + 0.2, + 0.5, + 0.69, + 0.8, + 0.86, + 0.9, + 0.94, + 0.96, + ], + }, +} +`; + +exports[`Fatigue Multipliers > should return correct multipliers for probability ranges > fatigue-multipliers 1`] = ` +[ + { + "actualMultiplier": 1, + "expectedMultiplier": 1, + "matches": true, + "probability": "95%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 1, + "expectedMultiplier": 1, + "matches": true, + "probability": "90%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 1.5, + "expectedMultiplier": 1.5, + "matches": true, + "probability": "85%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 1.5, + "expectedMultiplier": 1.5, + "matches": true, + "probability": "70%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 2, + "expectedMultiplier": 2, + "matches": true, + "probability": "60%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 2, + "expectedMultiplier": 2, + "matches": true, + "probability": "50%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 3, + "expectedMultiplier": 3, + "matches": true, + "probability": "40%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 3, + "expectedMultiplier": 3, + "matches": true, + "probability": "30%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 4, + "expectedMultiplier": 4, + "matches": true, + "probability": "20%", + }, + { + "actualMultiplier": 4, + "expectedMultiplier": 4, + "matches": true, + "probability": "10%", + }, +] +`; + +exports[`Learning Trajectory by Skill Category > should show basic skills mastering faster than complements > learning-trajectory-by-category 1`] = ` +{ + "categoryAverages": { + "basic": 16.666666666666668, + "fiveComplement": 24, + "tenComplement": 36, + }, + "exposuresToMastery": { + "basic.directAddition": 16, + "basic.directSubtraction": 16, + "basic.heavenBead": 18, + "fiveComplements.1=5-4": 24, + "fiveComplements.3=5-2": 24, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": 24, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": 40, + "tenComplements.6=10-4": 36, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": 32, + }, + "ordering": { + "basicFasterThanFive": true, + "fiveFasterThanTen": true, + }, +} +`; + +exports[`Skill Category Mastery Curves > should produce expected mastery curves at key exposure points > mastery-curves-table 1`] = ` +{ + "description": "P(correct) at each exposure level, showing how skill difficulty affects learning speed", + "table": [ + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "0%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "0%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "0%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "0%", + "exposures": 0, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "28%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "15%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "9%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "6%", + "exposures": 5, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "61%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "41%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "28%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "20%", + "exposures": 10, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "78%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "61%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "47%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "36%", + "exposures": 15, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "86%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "74%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "61%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "50%", + "exposures": 20, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "93%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "86%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "78%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "69%", + "exposures": 30, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "96%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "92%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "86%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "80%", + "exposures": 40, + }, + { + "Basic (0.8x)": "98%", + "Five-Comp (1.2x)": "95%", + "Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)": "91%", + "Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)": "86%", + "exposures": 50, + }, + ], +} +`; + +exports[`Skill Category Mastery Curves > should show consistent ratios between skill categories > fifty-percent-threshold-ratios 1`] = ` +{ + "exposuresFor50Percent": { + "basic.directAddition": 8, + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": 12, + "tenComplements.1=10-9": 20, + "tenComplements.9=10-1": 16, + }, + "ratiosRelativeToBasic": { + "basic.directAddition": "1.00", + "fiveComplements.4=5-1": "1.50", + "tenComplements.1=10-9": "2.50", + "tenComplements.9=10-1": "2.00", + }, +} +`; + +exports[`Validation Against Learning Expectations > should match expected mastery levels at key milestones > learning-expectations-validation 1`] = ` +{ + "assertions": { + "basicAbove60Percent": true, + "gapAtLeast20Points": true, + "tenCompHardBelow60Percent": true, + }, + "at20Exposures": { + "basic": "86.2%", + "fiveComp": "73.5%", + "tenCompEasy": "61.0%", + "tenCompHard": "50.0%", + }, + "gapBetweenEasiestAndHardest": "36.2 percentage points", +} +`; + +exports[`Validation Against Learning Expectations > should require ~2x more exposures for ten-complement vs basic to reach same mastery > exposure-ratio-for-equal-mastery 1`] = ` +{ + "basicExposures": 13, + "ratio": "1.92", + "ratioMatchesMultiplierRatio": true, + "targetMastery": "70%", + "tenCompExposures": 25, +} +`; diff --git a/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/profiles/slow-learner.ts b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/profiles/slow-learner.ts index ffb9fc91..835d60ad 100644 --- a/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/profiles/slow-learner.ts +++ b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/profiles/slow-learner.ts @@ -4,57 +4,62 @@ * A student who needs more practice to acquire mastery: * - High K value (needs more exposures to reach 50%) * - Higher hill coefficient (delayed onset, then improvement) - * - Most skills learned (with extra practice), but MISSED subtraction concepts + * - Most skills learned (with extra practice), but MISSED some ten-complement skills * - Uses help more often * - * REALISTIC SCENARIO: Student struggles with subtraction generally. - * They've had extra practice on addition but subtraction never clicked. + * REALISTIC SCENARIO: Student missed class when ten-complements were introduced. + * They know basic operations and five-complements, but several ten-complements + * were never properly taught. * * With K=15, n=2.5 (reduced K for achievable mastery): * - 40 exposures → P ≈ 91% (strong skills - HIGH CONTRAST) * - 0 exposures → P = 0% (missed skills) * * KEY: K=15 instead of K=20 so strong skills can reach 90%+ + * + * NOTE: We use ten-complement skills as the "weak" skills because the problem + * generator exercises these during normal practice. Subtraction-specific skills + * would require subtraction problems to be generated. */ import type { StudentProfile } from '../types' /** - * Slow learner who missed subtraction concepts. - * Strong in addition (with extra practice), weak in all subtraction. + * Slow learner who missed some ten-complement concepts. + * Strong in basics and five-complements, weak in specific ten-complements. */ const initialExposures: Record = { - // Basic addition - well learned with extra practice (45 exposures → ~93%) + // Basic skills - well learned with extra practice (45 exposures → ~93%) 'basic.directAddition': 45, 'basic.heavenBead': 42, 'basic.simpleCombinations': 40, - // Basic subtraction - MISSED/STRUGGLING (0 exposures → 0%) - 'basic.directSubtraction': 0, - 'basic.heavenBeadSubtraction': 0, - 'basic.simpleCombinationsSub': 0, - // Five complements addition - well learned (40 exposures → ~91%) + 'basic.directSubtraction': 40, + 'basic.heavenBeadSubtraction': 38, + 'basic.simpleCombinationsSub': 38, + // Five complements - well learned (40 exposures → ~91%) 'fiveComplements.4=5-1': 42, 'fiveComplements.3=5-2': 40, 'fiveComplements.2=5-3': 38, 'fiveComplements.1=5-4': 38, - // Ten complements - well learned (38 exposures → ~89%) + // Ten complements - MIXED: some well learned, some MISSED (0 exposure) 'tenComplements.9=10-1': 42, 'tenComplements.8=10-2': 40, - 'tenComplements.7=10-3': 38, - 'tenComplements.6=10-4': 38, - 'tenComplements.5=10-5': 38, + 'tenComplements.7=10-3': 0, // MISSED + 'tenComplements.6=10-4': 0, // MISSED + 'tenComplements.5=10-5': 0, // MISSED } /** Skills this student is weak at (for test validation) */ export const SLOW_LEARNER_WEAK_SKILLS = [ - 'basic.directSubtraction', - 'basic.heavenBeadSubtraction', - 'basic.simpleCombinationsSub', + 'tenComplements.7=10-3', + 'tenComplements.6=10-4', + 'tenComplements.5=10-5', ] export const slowLearnerProfile: StudentProfile = { - name: 'Slow Learner (Missed Subtraction)', - description: 'Strong in addition, missed subtraction concepts, learns slowly', + name: 'Slow Learner (Missed Ten-Complements)', + description: + 'Strong in basics and five-complements, missed some ten-complement concepts, learns slowly', // K = 15: Reaches 50% proficiency at 15 exposures (slow but achievable) halfMaxExposure: 15, diff --git a/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/skill-difficulty.test.ts b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/skill-difficulty.test.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3851dd4a --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/web/src/test/journey-simulator/skill-difficulty.test.ts @@ -0,0 +1,684 @@ +/** + * Skill Difficulty Model Tests + * + * Tests that validate the skill-specific difficulty multipliers in the + * SimulatedStudent model. Uses snapshots to capture learning curves + * and detect changes in model behavior. + */ + +import { afterEach, beforeEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from 'vitest' +import * as schema from '@/db/schema' +import { + createEphemeralDatabase, + createTestStudent, + getCurrentEphemeralDb, + setCurrentEphemeralDb, + type EphemeralDbResult, +} from './EphemeralDatabase' +import { JourneyRunner } from './JourneyRunner' +import { SeededRandom } from './SeededRandom' +import { SimulatedStudent, getTrueMultiplier } from './SimulatedStudent' +import type { JourneyConfig, JourneyResult, StudentProfile } from './types' + +// Mock the @/db module to use our ephemeral database +vi.mock('@/db', () => ({ + get db() { + return getCurrentEphemeralDb() + }, + schema, +})) + +// ============================================================================= +// Test Constants +// ============================================================================= + +/** Standard profile for consistent testing */ +const STANDARD_PROFILE: StudentProfile = { + name: 'Standard Test Profile', + description: 'Baseline profile for skill difficulty testing', + halfMaxExposure: 10, // Base K=10, multiplied by skill difficulty + hillCoefficient: 2.0, // Standard curve shape + initialExposures: {}, // Start from scratch + helpUsageProbabilities: [1.0, 0, 0, 0], // No help for clean measurements + helpBonuses: [0, 0, 0, 0], + baseResponseTimeMs: 5000, + responseTimeVariance: 0.3, +} + +/** Representative skills from each category */ +const TEST_SKILLS = { + basic: ['basic.directAddition', 'basic.heavenBead', 'basic.directSubtraction'], + fiveComplement: ['fiveComplements.4=5-1', 'fiveComplements.3=5-2', 'fiveComplements.1=5-4'], + tenComplement: [ + 'tenComplements.9=10-1', + 'tenComplements.6=10-4', + 'tenComplements.1=10-9', // Hardest + ], +} as const + +// ============================================================================= +// Proposal A: Learning Trajectory by Skill Category +// ============================================================================= + +describe('Learning Trajectory by Skill Category', () => { + it('should show basic skills mastering faster than complements', () => { + const rng = new SeededRandom(42) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(STANDARD_PROFILE, rng) + + // Track exposures needed to reach 80% for each skill + const exposuresToMastery: Record = {} + + for (const category of Object.keys(TEST_SKILLS) as Array) { + for (const skillId of TEST_SKILLS[category]) { + student.ensureSkillTracked(skillId) + + // Simulate exposures until 80% mastery + let exposures = 0 + while (student.getTrueProbability(skillId) < 0.8 && exposures < 100) { + // Manually increment exposure (simulating practice) + const currentExp = student.getExposure(skillId) + // Use reflection to set exposure directly for clean measurement + ;(student as unknown as { skillExposures: Map }).skillExposures.set( + skillId, + currentExp + 1 + ) + exposures++ + } + + exposuresToMastery[skillId] = exposures + } + } + + // Calculate category averages + const categoryAverages = { + basic: average(TEST_SKILLS.basic.map((s) => exposuresToMastery[s])), + fiveComplement: average(TEST_SKILLS.fiveComplement.map((s) => exposuresToMastery[s])), + tenComplement: average(TEST_SKILLS.tenComplement.map((s) => exposuresToMastery[s])), + } + + // Snapshot the results + expect({ + exposuresToMastery, + categoryAverages, + ordering: { + basicFasterThanFive: categoryAverages.basic < categoryAverages.fiveComplement, + fiveFasterThanTen: categoryAverages.fiveComplement < categoryAverages.tenComplement, + }, + }).toMatchSnapshot('learning-trajectory-by-category') + + // Assertions + expect(categoryAverages.basic).toBeLessThan(categoryAverages.fiveComplement) + expect(categoryAverages.fiveComplement).toBeLessThan(categoryAverages.tenComplement) + }) +}) + +// ============================================================================= +// Proposal B: A/B Test - With vs Without Skill Difficulty +// ============================================================================= + +describe('A/B Test: Skill Difficulty Impact', () => { + it('should show different learning curves with vs without difficulty multipliers', () => { + const exposurePoints = [5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50] + + // With skill difficulty (current model) + const withDifficulty = measureLearningCurves(exposurePoints, true) + + // Without skill difficulty (all multipliers = 1.0) + const withoutDifficulty = measureLearningCurves(exposurePoints, false) + + // Calculate differences + const differences: Record = {} + for (const skillId of Object.keys(withDifficulty.curves)) { + differences[skillId] = withDifficulty.curves[skillId].map( + (p, i) => withoutDifficulty.curves[skillId][i] - p + ) + } + + expect({ + withDifficulty: withDifficulty.curves, + withoutDifficulty: withoutDifficulty.curves, + differences, + summary: { + withDifficulty: withDifficulty.summary, + withoutDifficulty: withoutDifficulty.summary, + }, + }).toMatchSnapshot('skill-difficulty-ab-comparison') + + // Verify that difficulty multipliers create differentiation + // With difficulty: ten-complements should lag behind basic + const tenCompAt20 = withDifficulty.curves['tenComplements.9=10-1'][3] // index 3 = 20 exposures + const basicAt20 = withDifficulty.curves['basic.directAddition'][3] + expect(basicAt20).toBeGreaterThan(tenCompAt20) + + // Without difficulty: all skills should be identical + const tenCompAt20NoDiff = withoutDifficulty.curves['tenComplements.9=10-1'][3] + const basicAt20NoDiff = withoutDifficulty.curves['basic.directAddition'][3] + expect(basicAt20NoDiff).toBeCloseTo(tenCompAt20NoDiff, 1) // Should be equal + }) +}) + +// ============================================================================= +// Proposal C: Skill Category Mastery Curves (Table Format) +// ============================================================================= + +describe('Skill Category Mastery Curves', () => { + it('should produce expected mastery curves at key exposure points', () => { + const rng = new SeededRandom(42) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(STANDARD_PROFILE, rng) + + const exposurePoints = [0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50] + const representativeSkills = { + 'basic.directAddition': 'Basic (0.8x)', + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1': 'Five-Comp (1.2x)', + 'tenComplements.9=10-1': 'Ten-Comp Easy (1.6x)', + 'tenComplements.1=10-9': 'Ten-Comp Hard (2.0x)', + } + + // Build the mastery table + const masteryTable: Record> = {} + + for (const [skillId, label] of Object.entries(representativeSkills)) { + masteryTable[label] = {} + student.ensureSkillTracked(skillId) + + for (const exposure of exposurePoints) { + // Set exposure directly + ;(student as unknown as { skillExposures: Map }).skillExposures.set( + skillId, + exposure + ) + const prob = student.getTrueProbability(skillId) + masteryTable[label][exposure] = `${(prob * 100).toFixed(0)}%` + } + } + + // Format as readable table for snapshot + const tableRows = exposurePoints.map((exp) => ({ + exposures: exp, + ...Object.fromEntries( + Object.entries(masteryTable).map(([label, probs]) => [label, probs[exp]]) + ), + })) + + expect({ + table: tableRows, + description: + 'P(correct) at each exposure level, showing how skill difficulty affects learning speed', + }).toMatchSnapshot('mastery-curves-table') + }) + + it('should show consistent ratios between skill categories', () => { + const rng = new SeededRandom(42) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(STANDARD_PROFILE, rng) + + // At what exposure does each skill reach 50%? + const exposuresFor50Percent: Record = {} + + const skills = [ + 'basic.directAddition', // 0.8x multiplier + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1', // 1.2x multiplier + 'tenComplements.9=10-1', // 1.6x multiplier + 'tenComplements.1=10-9', // 2.0x multiplier + ] + + for (const skillId of skills) { + student.ensureSkillTracked(skillId) + + // Binary search for 50% threshold + let low = 0 + let high = 50 + while (high - low > 0.5) { + const mid = (low + high) / 2 + ;(student as unknown as { skillExposures: Map }).skillExposures.set( + skillId, + mid + ) + const prob = student.getTrueProbability(skillId) + if (prob < 0.5) { + low = mid + } else { + high = mid + } + } + exposuresFor50Percent[skillId] = Math.round((low + high) / 2) + } + + // Calculate ratios relative to basic skill + const basicExp = exposuresFor50Percent['basic.directAddition'] + const ratios = Object.fromEntries( + Object.entries(exposuresFor50Percent).map(([skill, exp]) => [ + skill, + (exp / basicExp).toFixed(2), + ]) + ) + + expect({ + exposuresFor50Percent, + ratiosRelativeToBasic: ratios, + }).toMatchSnapshot('fifty-percent-threshold-ratios') + }) +}) + +// ============================================================================= +// Proposal D: Validation Against Real Learning Expectations +// ============================================================================= + +describe('Validation Against Learning Expectations', () => { + it('should match expected mastery levels at key milestones', () => { + const rng = new SeededRandom(42) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(STANDARD_PROFILE, rng) + + const skills = { + basic: 'basic.directAddition', + fiveComp: 'fiveComplements.4=5-1', + tenCompEasy: 'tenComplements.9=10-1', + tenCompHard: 'tenComplements.1=10-9', + } + + for (const skillId of Object.values(skills)) { + student.ensureSkillTracked(skillId) + } + + // Set 20 exposures for all skills + for (const skillId of Object.values(skills)) { + ;(student as unknown as { skillExposures: Map }).skillExposures.set( + skillId, + 20 + ) + } + + const probsAt20 = { + basic: student.getTrueProbability(skills.basic), + fiveComp: student.getTrueProbability(skills.fiveComp), + tenCompEasy: student.getTrueProbability(skills.tenCompEasy), + tenCompHard: student.getTrueProbability(skills.tenCompHard), + } + + // After 20 exposures: + // - Basic skills (K=8) should be >60% (actually ~86%) + // - Ten-complement hard (K=20) should be <60% (actually 50%) + expect(probsAt20.basic).toBeGreaterThan(0.6) + expect(probsAt20.tenCompHard).toBeLessThan(0.6) + + // The gap between easiest and hardest should be significant + const gap = probsAt20.basic - probsAt20.tenCompHard + expect(gap).toBeGreaterThan(0.2) // At least 20 percentage points + + // Snapshot all expectations + expect({ + at20Exposures: { + basic: `${(probsAt20.basic * 100).toFixed(1)}%`, + fiveComp: `${(probsAt20.fiveComp * 100).toFixed(1)}%`, + tenCompEasy: `${(probsAt20.tenCompEasy * 100).toFixed(1)}%`, + tenCompHard: `${(probsAt20.tenCompHard * 100).toFixed(1)}%`, + }, + gapBetweenEasiestAndHardest: `${(gap * 100).toFixed(1)} percentage points`, + assertions: { + basicAbove60Percent: probsAt20.basic > 0.6, + tenCompHardBelow60Percent: probsAt20.tenCompHard < 0.6, + gapAtLeast20Points: gap > 0.2, + }, + }).toMatchSnapshot('learning-expectations-validation') + }) + + it('should require ~2x more exposures for ten-complement vs basic to reach same mastery', () => { + const rng = new SeededRandom(42) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(STANDARD_PROFILE, rng) + + const basicSkill = 'basic.directAddition' // 0.8x multiplier → K=8 + const tenCompSkill = 'tenComplements.9=10-1' // 1.6x multiplier → K=16 + + student.ensureSkillTracked(basicSkill) + student.ensureSkillTracked(tenCompSkill) + + // Find exposures needed for 70% mastery + const findExposuresFor = (skillId: string, targetProb: number): number => { + for (let exp = 1; exp <= 100; exp++) { + ;(student as unknown as { skillExposures: Map }).skillExposures.set( + skillId, + exp + ) + if (student.getTrueProbability(skillId) >= targetProb) { + return exp + } + } + return 100 + } + + const basicExposuresFor70 = findExposuresFor(basicSkill, 0.7) + const tenCompExposuresFor70 = findExposuresFor(tenCompSkill, 0.7) + const ratio = tenCompExposuresFor70 / basicExposuresFor70 + + expect({ + targetMastery: '70%', + basicExposures: basicExposuresFor70, + tenCompExposures: tenCompExposuresFor70, + ratio: ratio.toFixed(2), + ratioMatchesMultiplierRatio: Math.abs(ratio - 1.6 / 0.8) < 0.5, // ~2.0 + }).toMatchSnapshot('exposure-ratio-for-equal-mastery') + + // The ratio should be close to the multiplier ratio (1.6/0.8 = 2.0) + expect(ratio).toBeGreaterThan(1.5) + expect(ratio).toBeLessThan(2.5) + }) +}) + +// ============================================================================= +// Fatigue Multiplier Tests +// ============================================================================= + +describe('Fatigue Multipliers', () => { + it('should return correct multipliers for probability ranges', () => { + const testCases = [ + { prob: 0.95, expected: 1.0 }, + { prob: 0.9, expected: 1.0 }, + { prob: 0.85, expected: 1.5 }, + { prob: 0.7, expected: 1.5 }, + { prob: 0.6, expected: 2.0 }, + { prob: 0.5, expected: 2.0 }, + { prob: 0.4, expected: 3.0 }, + { prob: 0.3, expected: 3.0 }, + { prob: 0.2, expected: 4.0 }, + { prob: 0.1, expected: 4.0 }, + ] + + const results = testCases.map(({ prob, expected }) => ({ + probability: `${(prob * 100).toFixed(0)}%`, + expectedMultiplier: expected, + actualMultiplier: getTrueMultiplier(prob), + matches: getTrueMultiplier(prob) === expected, + })) + + expect(results).toMatchSnapshot('fatigue-multipliers') + + for (const { prob, expected } of testCases) { + expect(getTrueMultiplier(prob)).toBe(expected) + } + }) +}) + +// ============================================================================= +// Proposal E: A/B Mastery Trajectories (Session-by-Session) +// ============================================================================= + +/** + * A/B Mastery Trajectories Test + * + * Runs Adaptive vs Classic comparisons for multiple deficient skills and + * captures session-by-session mastery progression in snapshots. + * This data is used by the blog post charts. + */ +describe('A/B Mastery Trajectories', () => { + let ephemeralDb: EphemeralDbResult + + beforeEach(() => { + ephemeralDb = createEphemeralDatabase() + setCurrentEphemeralDb(ephemeralDb.db) + }) + + afterEach(() => { + setCurrentEphemeralDb(null) + ephemeralDb.cleanup() + }) + + it('should capture mastery trajectories for multiple deficient skills', async () => { + // Skills to test - each represents a different difficulty category + const deficientSkills = [ + 'fiveComplements.3=5-2', // Medium difficulty + 'fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2', // Medium difficulty (subtraction variant) + 'tenComplements.9=10-1', // Hard (but easier ten-comp) + 'tenComplements.5=10-5', // Hard (middle ten-comp) + 'tenComplementsSub.-9=+1-10', // Very hard (subtraction) + 'tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10', // Very hard (subtraction) + ] + + // All skills the student can practice (deficient + mastered prerequisites) + const allSkills = [ + 'basic.directAddition', + 'basic.heavenBead', + 'basic.directSubtraction', + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1', + 'fiveComplements.3=5-2', + 'fiveComplements.2=5-3', + 'fiveComplementsSub.-4=-5+1', + 'fiveComplementsSub.-3=-5+2', + 'tenComplements.9=10-1', + 'tenComplements.5=10-5', + 'tenComplementsSub.-9=+1-10', + 'tenComplementsSub.-5=+5-10', + ] + + // Create profiles where the student has mastered prerequisites but not the target skill + const createDeficientProfile = (deficientSkillId: string): StudentProfile => ({ + name: `Deficient in ${deficientSkillId}`, + description: `Student who missed lessons on ${deficientSkillId}`, + halfMaxExposure: 10, + hillCoefficient: 2.0, + // Pre-seed all skills EXCEPT the deficient one + initialExposures: Object.fromEntries( + allSkills + .filter((s) => s !== deficientSkillId) + .map((s) => [s, 25]) // 25 exposures = ~86% mastery for basic, ~73% for five-comp + ), + helpUsageProbabilities: [0.7, 0.2, 0.08, 0.02], + helpBonuses: [0, 0.05, 0.12, 0.25], + baseResponseTimeMs: 5000, + responseTimeVariance: 0.3, + }) + + const trajectories: Record< + string, + { + adaptive: { session: number; mastery: number }[] + classic: { session: number; mastery: number }[] + sessionsTo50Adaptive: number | null + sessionsTo50Classic: number | null + sessionsTo80Adaptive: number | null + sessionsTo80Classic: number | null + } + > = {} + + const sessionConfig = { + sessionCount: 12, + sessionDurationMinutes: 15, + seed: 98765, + practicingSkills: allSkills, + } + + for (const deficientSkillId of deficientSkills) { + const profile = createDeficientProfile(deficientSkillId) + + // Run adaptive mode + const adaptiveResult = await runJourney(ephemeralDb, { + ...sessionConfig, + profile, + mode: 'adaptive', + }) + + // Run classic mode (same seed for fair comparison) + const classicResult = await runJourney(ephemeralDb, { + ...sessionConfig, + profile, + mode: 'classic', + }) + + // Extract mastery trajectory for the deficient skill + const adaptiveTrajectory = extractSkillTrajectory(adaptiveResult, deficientSkillId) + const classicTrajectory = extractSkillTrajectory(classicResult, deficientSkillId) + + trajectories[deficientSkillId] = { + adaptive: adaptiveTrajectory, + classic: classicTrajectory, + sessionsTo50Adaptive: findSessionForMastery(adaptiveTrajectory, 0.5), + sessionsTo50Classic: findSessionForMastery(classicTrajectory, 0.5), + sessionsTo80Adaptive: findSessionForMastery(adaptiveTrajectory, 0.8), + sessionsTo80Classic: findSessionForMastery(classicTrajectory, 0.8), + } + } + + // Compute summary statistics + const summary = { + skills: deficientSkills, + adaptiveWins50: 0, + classicWins50: 0, + adaptiveWins80: 0, + classicWins80: 0, + ties50: 0, + ties80: 0, + } + + for (const skillId of deficientSkills) { + const t = trajectories[skillId] + + // 50% comparison + if (t.sessionsTo50Adaptive !== null && t.sessionsTo50Classic !== null) { + if (t.sessionsTo50Adaptive < t.sessionsTo50Classic) summary.adaptiveWins50++ + else if (t.sessionsTo50Adaptive > t.sessionsTo50Classic) summary.classicWins50++ + else summary.ties50++ + } else if (t.sessionsTo50Adaptive !== null) { + summary.adaptiveWins50++ + } else if (t.sessionsTo50Classic !== null) { + summary.classicWins50++ + } + + // 80% comparison + if (t.sessionsTo80Adaptive !== null && t.sessionsTo80Classic !== null) { + if (t.sessionsTo80Adaptive < t.sessionsTo80Classic) summary.adaptiveWins80++ + else if (t.sessionsTo80Adaptive > t.sessionsTo80Classic) summary.classicWins80++ + else summary.ties80++ + } else if (t.sessionsTo80Adaptive !== null) { + summary.adaptiveWins80++ + } else if (t.sessionsTo80Classic !== null) { + summary.classicWins80++ + } + } + + // Snapshot the full trajectory data + expect({ + trajectories, + summary, + config: { + sessionCount: sessionConfig.sessionCount, + sessionDurationMinutes: sessionConfig.sessionDurationMinutes, + seed: sessionConfig.seed, + }, + }).toMatchSnapshot('ab-mastery-trajectories') + + // Adaptive should generally outperform classic + expect(summary.adaptiveWins50 + summary.adaptiveWins80).toBeGreaterThan( + summary.classicWins50 + summary.classicWins80 + ) + }, 300000) // 5 minute timeout for multiple simulations +}) + +/** Run a journey simulation and return results */ +async function runJourney( + ephemeralDb: EphemeralDbResult, + config: JourneyConfig +): Promise { + const suffix = `${config.mode}-${config.seed}-${Date.now()}` + const { playerId } = await createTestStudent(ephemeralDb.db, `student-${suffix}`) + + const rng = new SeededRandom(config.seed) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(config.profile, rng) + const runner = new JourneyRunner(ephemeralDb.db, student, config, rng, playerId) + + return runner.run() +} + +/** Extract mastery trajectory for a specific skill from journey results */ +function extractSkillTrajectory( + result: JourneyResult, + skillId: string +): { session: number; mastery: number }[] { + return result.snapshots.map((snapshot) => ({ + session: snapshot.sessionNumber, + mastery: Math.round((snapshot.trueSkillProbabilities.get(skillId) ?? 0) * 100) / 100, + })) +} + +/** Find the first session where mastery reaches or exceeds threshold */ +function findSessionForMastery( + trajectory: { session: number; mastery: number }[], + threshold: number +): number | null { + for (const point of trajectory) { + if (point.mastery >= threshold) { + return point.session + } + } + return null +} + +// ============================================================================= +// Helper Functions +// ============================================================================= + +function average(nums: number[]): number { + return nums.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / nums.length +} + +/** + * Measure learning curves for representative skills. + * + * @param exposurePoints - Array of exposure counts to measure + * @param useDifficulty - If false, bypasses skill difficulty multipliers + */ +function measureLearningCurves( + exposurePoints: number[], + useDifficulty: boolean +): { + curves: Record + summary: Record +} { + const skills = [ + 'basic.directAddition', + 'fiveComplements.4=5-1', + 'tenComplements.9=10-1', + 'tenComplements.1=10-9', + ] + + const curves: Record = {} + const summary: Record = {} + + // Use different K values based on difficulty flag + const profile: StudentProfile = { + ...STANDARD_PROFILE, + halfMaxExposure: useDifficulty ? 10 : 10, + } + + const rng = new SeededRandom(42) + const student = new SimulatedStudent(profile, rng) + + for (const skillId of skills) { + student.ensureSkillTracked(skillId) + curves[skillId] = [] + + for (const exposure of exposurePoints) { + ;(student as unknown as { skillExposures: Map }).skillExposures.set( + skillId, + exposure + ) + + let prob: number + if (useDifficulty) { + // Use normal getTrueProbability (includes difficulty multiplier) + prob = student.getTrueProbability(skillId) + } else { + // Calculate without difficulty multiplier + // P = exposure^n / (K^n + exposure^n) with K=10 for all + const K = profile.halfMaxExposure + const n = profile.hillCoefficient + prob = exposure === 0 ? 0 : exposure ** n / (K ** n + exposure ** n) + } + + curves[skillId].push(Math.round(prob * 100) / 100) + } + + // Summary stat: probability at 20 exposures + const idx20 = exposurePoints.indexOf(20) + summary[skillId] = { avgAt20: idx20 >= 0 ? curves[skillId][idx20] : 0 } + } + + return { curves, summary } +} diff --git a/pnpm-lock.yaml b/pnpm-lock.yaml index 127dd924..9cabb020 100644 --- a/pnpm-lock.yaml +++ b/pnpm-lock.yaml @@ -173,6 +173,12 @@ importers: drizzle-orm: specifier: ^0.44.6 version: 0.44.6(@types/better-sqlite3@7.6.13)(better-sqlite3@12.4.1) + echarts: + specifier: ^6.0.0 + version: 6.0.0 + echarts-for-react: + specifier: ^3.0.5 + version: 3.0.5(echarts@6.0.0)(react@18.3.1) embla-carousel-autoplay: specifier: ^8.6.0 version: 8.6.0(embla-carousel@8.6.0) @@ -5643,6 +5649,15 @@ packages: eastasianwidth@0.2.0: resolution: {integrity: sha512-I88TYZWc9XiYHRQ4/3c5rjjfgkjhLyW2luGIheGERbNQ6OY7yTybanSpDXZa8y7VUP9YmDcYa+eyq4ca7iLqWA==} + echarts-for-react@3.0.5: + resolution: {integrity: sha512-YpEI5Ty7O/2nvCfQ7ybNa+S90DwE8KYZWacGvJW4luUqywP7qStQ+pxDlYOmr4jGDu10mhEkiAuMKcUlT4W5vg==} + peerDependencies: + echarts: ^3.0.0 || ^4.0.0 || ^5.0.0 || ^6.0.0 + react: ^15.0.0 || >=16.0.0 + + echarts@6.0.0: + resolution: {integrity: sha512-Tte/grDQRiETQP4xz3iZWSvoHrkCQtwqd6hs+mifXcjrCuo2iKWbajFObuLJVBlDIJlOzgQPd1hsaKt/3+OMkQ==} + ee-first@1.1.1: resolution: {integrity: sha512-WMwm9LhRUo+WUaRN+vRuETqG89IgZphVSNkdFgeb6sS/E4OrDIN7t48CAewSHXc6C8lefD8KKfr5vY61brQlow==} @@ -9026,6 +9041,9 @@ packages: sisteransi@1.0.5: resolution: {integrity: sha512-bLGGlR1QxBcynn2d5YmDX4MGjlZvy2MRBDRNHLJ8VI6l6+9FUiyTFNJ0IveOSP0bcXgVDPRcfGqA0pjaqUpfVg==} + size-sensor@1.0.2: + resolution: {integrity: sha512-2NCmWxY7A9pYKGXNBfteo4hy14gWu47rg5692peVMst6lQLPKrVjhY+UTEsPI5ceFRJSl3gVgMYaUi/hKuaiKw==} + skin-tone@2.0.0: resolution: {integrity: sha512-kUMbT1oBJCpgrnKoSr0o6wPtvRWT9W9UKvGLwfJYO2WuahZRHOpEyL1ckyMGgMWh0UdpmaoFqKKD29WTomNEGA==} engines: {node: '>=8'} @@ -9608,6 +9626,9 @@ packages: tslib@1.14.1: 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+ echarts: 6.0.0 + fast-deep-equal: 3.1.3 + react: 18.3.1 + size-sensor: 1.0.2 + + echarts@6.0.0: + dependencies: + tslib: 2.3.0 + zrender: 6.0.0 + ee-first@1.1.1: {} ejs@3.1.10: @@ -20294,6 +20330,8 @@ snapshots: sisteransi@1.0.5: {} + size-sensor@1.0.2: {} + skin-tone@2.0.0: dependencies: unicode-emoji-modifier-base: 1.0.0 @@ -20909,6 +20947,8 @@ snapshots: tslib@1.14.1: {} + tslib@2.3.0: {} + tslib@2.8.1: {} tsup@7.3.0(postcss@8.5.6)(typescript@5.9.3): @@ -21629,6 +21669,10 @@ snapshots: zod@4.1.12: {} + zrender@6.0.0: + dependencies: + tslib: 2.3.0 + zustand@3.7.2(react@18.3.1): optionalDependencies: react: 18.3.1